Abstract
IMF Country Report No. 22/267
Copyright Page
IMF Country Report No. 22/267
REPUBLIC OF EQUATORIAL GUINEA
2022 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR REPUBLIC OF EQUATORIAL GUINEA
August 2022
Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2022 Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:
A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its July 25, 2022, consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea.
The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on July 25, 2022, following discussions that ended on May 19, 2022, with the officials of Equatorial Guinea on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on July 8, 2022.
An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.
A Staff Supplement updating information on recent developments.
A Statement by the Executive Director for Equatorial Guinea.
The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.
Copies of this report are available to the public from
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© 2022 International Monetary Fund
Title Page
REPUBLIC OF EQUATORIAL GUINEA
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2022 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
July 8, 2022
KEY ISSUES
Context. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–21, and Bata explosions in 2021, struck oil-exporter Equatorial Guinea at a time when its economic vulnerabilities had already been aggravated by a prolonged period of depressed hydrocarbon prices, and seven consecutive years of decline in real GDP. The economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the 2020–21 shocks, buoyed by higher international oil prices. However, substantial challenges remain: (i) surging food prices and banking sector vulnerabilities cloud the short term, while (ii) declining hydrocarbon production—and the implied decline in external reserves—loom over the medium term, especially in light of lagging governance and diversification reform implementation.
Outlook and Risks. The outlook points to some growth recovery in 2022, followed by falling output and living standards. The economy is projected to contract in 2023 and through the medium term, reflecting a reduction in hydrocarbon output together with a stalled structural reform agenda, weak governance and significant corruption vulnerabilities, subdued business confidence, and a weak banking sector. Risks are tilted to the downside, including from a further sustained surge in international food prices, a resurgence of pandemic variants, a spike in marine piracy incidents, lower oil prices, further delays in addressing governance and corruption vulnerabilities, and a worsening of banking sector stability indicators.
Policy Advice. Near-term priorities are (i) to protect food security for the most vulnerable households, while (ii) rebuilding macroeconomic buffers, including accumulating foreign reserves, with windfall oil revenues, and (iii) addressing banking sector stability concerns. Over the medium term, to maintain fiscal sustainability and promote inclusive growth and economic diversification, fiscal policy should be recalibrated to improve non-hydrocarbon revenues and the efficiency of public spending, while credibly implementing the development plan and the action plan to improve governance, enhance transparency, and fight corruption. There is a crucial need to invest in basic healthcare, education, and sanitation to strengthen human capital and improve social outcomes.
Approved By
Vitaliy Kramarenko (AFR) and Andrea Schaechter (SPR)
Discussions took place in Malabo, Bata, Ciudad de la Paz, and Mongomo between May 12 and May 19, 2022. The team comprised Ms. Colacelli (head), Mr. Amui, Mr. Nicholls (all AFR), Mr. Elfayoumi (SPR), Mr. Evans (FAD), Mr. Portier (MCM), and Mr. Miko Nzang (local economist). Ms. Luca (LEG) joined virtually. Mr. Ondo Bile (OED) also joined the meetings. The mission met with the Prime Minister Francisco Pascual Obama Asue, Minister of Finance, Economy and Planning Valentín Ela Maye Mba, Minister of Justice Salvador Ondo Nkumu, State Secretary of Treasury Milagrosa Obono Angue, BEAC Second Deputy National Director Jaime Edu Andomo Obono, Vice Minister of Health Mitoha Ondo’o Ayekaba, senior officials from the Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbon, other senior officials, representatives from the banking sector, oil companies, civil society, and academics. Ms. Adjahouinou, Ms. Akor, and Ms. Joseph (all AFR) assisted in the preparation of this report.
Contents
CONTEXT
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS
POLICY DISCUSSIONS
A. Fiscal Policy to Maintain Sustainability while Supporting Inclusive Growth
B. Improving Social Outcomes and Protecting Food Security
C. Strengthening the Banking Sector and Financial Inclusion
D. Improving Governance and Transparency and Fighting Corruption
E. Boosting Non-Hydrocarbon Growth
OTHER ISSUES
STAFF APPRAISAL
BOX
1. 2022 Fuel Subsidy Reform
TABLES
1. Overview on the Mixed Progress in the Implementation of Macro-Critical Governance Reforms and Next Steps
2. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2020–27
3a. Balance of Payments, 2020–27 (Billions of CFA francs)
3b. Balance of Payments, 2020–27 (Percent of GDP)
4a. Summary of Central Government Financial Operations, 2020–27 (Billions of CFA francs)
4b. Summary of Central Government Financial Operations, 2020–27 (Percent of GDP)
5. Monetary Survey, 2020–27 (Billions of CFA francs)
6. Fiscal Financing Requirements, 2020–23 (Billions of CFA francs)
7. External Financing Requirements, 2020–23 (Millions of U.S. dollars)
ANNEXES
I. Implementation of Past IMF Advice (Article IV 2016)
II. External Sector Assessment
III. Risk Assessment Matrix
IV. Piracy Risk in Equatorial Guinea
V. Debt Sustainability Analysis
VI. Long-Term Hydrocarbon Resources and Debt Sustainability in Equatorial Guinea
VII. Public Investment Program, 2008–17
VIII. Mobile Cash Transfers in Equatorial Guinea to Improve Social Welfare
IX. Considerations for Mitigating Surging Food Prices
X. Governance–Update on Anti-Corruption, Rule of Law, and AML/CFT Frameworks
XI. National Strategy for Sustainable Development “Equatorial Guinea Agenda 2035”
XII. Climate Change Risks—Impact and Government Plans
XIII. Potential Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms
XIV. Technical Assistance Priorities 2022–24
Press Release
PR[22/280]
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Equatorial Guinea
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
On July 25, 2022, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with Equatorial Guinea.
Equatorial Guinea’s oil-dependent economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic and Bata explosions, but substantial challenges remain. The relaxation of pandemic containment measures and higher international oil prices are helping boost economic activity, government revenues, and export earnings. However, surging food prices and banking sector vulnerabilities cloud the short term, while real GDP and living standards are expected to decline over the medium term.
Following a contraction of 3.2 percent in 2021, real GDP is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2022 supported by hydrocarbon production and Bata reconstruction. Starting in 2023, the economy is projected to contract through the medium term, reflecting a reduction in hydrocarbon output together with a stalled structural reform agenda. Inflation is projected to rise to 6 percent by end-2022, driven by the pass-through from higher international oil and food prices—owing to global recovery from the pandemic and supply shocks—and to moderate over the medium term as these factors dissipate.
The balance of risks to the outlook is titled to the downside. On the upside, continued increase in hydrocarbon prices would further boost export earnings, improve fiscal balances, and external reserves; while stronger reform efforts would help reverse the medium-term decline in real GDP. On the downside, a further sustained surge in international food prices, a resurgence of the pandemic, lower oil prices, a spike in marine piracy incidents, further delays in addressing governance and corruption vulnerabilities, and worsening of banking sector stability indicators could further depress real GDP.
Executive Board Assessment2
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They noted that Equatorial Guinea’s economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic and Bata explosions, buoyed by higher oil prices, but severe challenges remain and significant risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. In the near term, surging food prices have increased the risk of food insecurity for a substantial proportion of the population, while the ongoing secular decline in hydrocarbon output will drive a fall in output and living standards over the medium term. Against this background, Directors emphasized that the authorities must significantly strengthen their commitment to reinvigorate the stalled structural reform agenda, particularly to address serious governance vulnerabilities, to support sustainable, inclusive growth. The Fund stands ready to continue to support the authorities’ efforts, including through capacity development.
Directors supported the authorities’ near-term focus on measures to sustain external and fiscal sustainability while providing targeted support to the most vulnerable. They urged the authorities to use part of the windfall revenues from higher hydrocarbon prices to rebuild macroeconomic buffers, including via the accumulation of foreign reserves, as well as addressing social needs, especially food insecurity. Directors urged efforts to improve the efficiency of public spending and non-hydrocarbon revenue, while promoting inclusive growth and economic diversification over the medium term.
Directors emphasized the importance of tackling vulnerabilities in the banking sector. They welcomed measures to address high non-performing loans, undercapitalization, and low liquidity at some banks. Accelerating plans to settle domestic arrears would also help address banking sector stability concerns. Directors also endorsed efforts to strengthen the management of state-owned banks, as well as to develop mobile payments to improve financial access and inclusion.
Directors regretted the lack of progress in implementing macro-critical reforms to meet EFF and RFI commitments. They urged the authorities to substantially increase efforts to improve governance, enhance transparency, and fight corruption, which are essential to secure national development gains. Directors welcomed efforts to put in place the asset declaration regime for senior public officials, including the publication of the declarations. They also called for completion and publication of audits, including for state-owned hydrocarbon firms, regular publication of beneficial ownership information on emergency-related public spending, and publication of periodic implementation progress reports of the 2019 Good Governance and Anti-Corruption Action Plan. Directors also underscored the need to strengthen the effectiveness of the AML/CFT framework and improve the timely publication of economic data.
Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to economic diversification and sustainable inclusive growth. They highlighted the need to boost investment in basic healthcare, education, and sanitation to strengthen human capital and social outcomes. Directors urged the authorities to step up efforts to leverage existing public infrastructure to stimulate new economic activities and welcomed the authorities’ commitment to build a climate resilient economy.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with the Republic of Equatorial Guinea will be held in accordance with the Executive Board decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.
Equatorial Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2019–27
Including oil, LNG, LPG, butane, propane, and methanol.
Includes a one-time clearance of outstanding arrears through securitization in 2022.
Excluding oil revenues, and interest earned and paid.
Outstanding public debt includes domestic arrears, which amounted to 9.2 percent of GDP in 2021.
The SDR allocation is not included in this figure.
The local price of crude oil is the Brent and includes a quality discount.
Equatorial Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2019–27
| Est. | Est. | Projections | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |||||
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||||||||
| Production, prices, and money | |||||||||||||
| Real GDP | -5.5 | -4.2 | -3.2 | 5.8 | -3.1 | -12.3 | -2.6 | -4.7 | -1.1 | ||||
| Hydrocarbon sectors1 | -8.8 | -3.4 | -7.3 | 9.0 | -8.3 | -25.3 | -10.0 | -16.2 | -9.0 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon sectors | -1.4 | -5.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | ||||
| GDP deflator | -3.2 | -8.8 | 20.9 | 36.4 | -6.0 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | ||||
| Hydrocarbon sectors | -11.7 | -25.5 | 76.2 | 55.8 | -15.9 | -11.9 | -6.7 | -5.5 | -3.4 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon sectors | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | ||||
| Consumer prices (annual average) | 1.2 | 4.8 | -0.1 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 | ||||
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 4.1 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| Monetary and exchange rate | |||||||||||||
| Broad money | -6.3 | -7.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | -8.9 | -12.9 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 2.3 | ||||
| Nominal effective exchange rate (- = depreciation) | -1.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Real effective exchange rate (- = depreciation) | -2.2 | 5.9 | -4.6 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| External sector | |||||||||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. | -16.5 | -38.5 | 57.6 | 64.5 | -21.2 | -30.3 | -12.4 | -17.3 | -10.0 | ||||
| Hydrocarbon exports | -15.7 | -38.7 | 63.8 | 69.0 | -22.3 | -32.2 | -13.8 | -19.5 | -11.9 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon exports | -23.2 | -36.0 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | ||||
| Imports, f.o.b. | -22.0 | -31.2 | 22.3 | 46.7 | -21.5 | -11.2 | 0.4 | -4.1 | -1.8 | ||||
| Terms of trade | 12.5 | -13.7 | 24.9 | 54.1 | -15.4 | -10.9 | -0.3 | -9.1 | -6.5 | ||||
| Government finance | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -14.3 | -33.9 | 27.0 | 49.0 | -8.0 | -20.7 | -9.6 | -8.1 | -2.9 | ||||
| Expenditure | -20.6 | -17.7 | -6.4 | 38.1 | -11.2 | -10.7 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -0.7 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||||||||
| Investment and savings | |||||||||||||
| Gross investment | 10.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.1 | ||||
| Gross national savings | 10.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | ||||
| Government finance | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 18.6 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 11.6 | ||||
| Of which: hydrocarbon revenue | 14.8 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 6.7 | ||||
| non-hydrocarbon revenue | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | ||||
| Expenditure | 16.8 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 11.6 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (Commitment basis) | 1.8 | -1.7 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (Cash basis)2 | -0.5 | -3.2 | 1.0 | -2.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon primary balance3 | -12.2 | -11.1 | -8.7 | -8.5 | -7.7 | -7.3 | -6.9 | -6.4 | -5.8 | ||||
| Outstanding public debt4 | 43.2 | 48.4 | 42.8 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.2 | 24.1 | 21.1 | ||||
| Change in domestic arrears | -2.3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| External sector | |||||||||||||
| Current account balance (including official transfers; – = deficit) | -0.9 | -4.2 | -3.4 | -1.6 | -2.1 | -5.3 | -6.4 | -7.1 | -7.0 | ||||
| Total external public debt | 14.0 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | ||||
| External debt service-to-exports ratio (percent) | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 9.9 | ||||
| External debt service/government revenue (percent) | 11.9 | 14.4 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 15.5 | 16.8 | ||||
| Memorandum items | |||||||||||||
| CEMAC Foreign Reserves | |||||||||||||
| (US$ billions, end-of-period)5 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | n.a | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | ||||
| (in months of extrazone imports) | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | n.a | n.a | ||||
| Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel)6 | 54.5 | 39.1 | 67.3 | 107.7 | 92.9 | 84.1 | 78.2 | 74.4 | 71.8 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs) | 6,658 | 5,813 | 6,804 | 9,819 | 8,946 | 7,794 | 7,755 | 7,667 | 7,846 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars) | 11,364 | 10,099 | 12,269 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon GDP (billions of CFA francs) | 3,905 | 3,832 | 4,003 | 4,323 | 4,707 | 5,002 | 5,410 | 5,810 | 6,214 | ||||
| Oil volume (crude + condensado, millions of barrels) | 53 | 52 | 43 | 43 | 38 | 30 | 29 | 25 | 22 | ||||
| Exchange rate (average; CFA francs/U.S. dollar) | 585.9 | 575.6 | 554.5 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
Including oil, LNG, LPG, butane, propane, and methanol.
Includes a one-time clearance of outstanding arrears through securitization in 2022.
Excluding oil revenues, and interest earned and paid.
Outstanding public debt includes domestic arrears, which amounted to 9.2 percent of GDP in 2021.
The SDR allocation is not included in this figure.
The local price of crude oil is the Brent and includes a quality discount.
Equatorial Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2019–27
| Est. | Est. | Projections | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |||||
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||||||||
| Production, prices, and money | |||||||||||||
| Real GDP | -5.5 | -4.2 | -3.2 | 5.8 | -3.1 | -12.3 | -2.6 | -4.7 | -1.1 | ||||
| Hydrocarbon sectors1 | -8.8 | -3.4 | -7.3 | 9.0 | -8.3 | -25.3 | -10.0 | -16.2 | -9.0 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon sectors | -1.4 | -5.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | ||||
| GDP deflator | -3.2 | -8.8 | 20.9 | 36.4 | -6.0 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | ||||
| Hydrocarbon sectors | -11.7 | -25.5 | 76.2 | 55.8 | -15.9 | -11.9 | -6.7 | -5.5 | -3.4 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon sectors | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | ||||
| Consumer prices (annual average) | 1.2 | 4.8 | -0.1 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 | ||||
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 4.1 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| Monetary and exchange rate | |||||||||||||
| Broad money | -6.3 | -7.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | -8.9 | -12.9 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 2.3 | ||||
| Nominal effective exchange rate (- = depreciation) | -1.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Real effective exchange rate (- = depreciation) | -2.2 | 5.9 | -4.6 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| External sector | |||||||||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. | -16.5 | -38.5 | 57.6 | 64.5 | -21.2 | -30.3 | -12.4 | -17.3 | -10.0 | ||||
| Hydrocarbon exports | -15.7 | -38.7 | 63.8 | 69.0 | -22.3 | -32.2 | -13.8 | -19.5 | -11.9 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon exports | -23.2 | -36.0 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | ||||
| Imports, f.o.b. | -22.0 | -31.2 | 22.3 | 46.7 | -21.5 | -11.2 | 0.4 | -4.1 | -1.8 | ||||
| Terms of trade | 12.5 | -13.7 | 24.9 | 54.1 | -15.4 | -10.9 | -0.3 | -9.1 | -6.5 | ||||
| Government finance | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -14.3 | -33.9 | 27.0 | 49.0 | -8.0 | -20.7 | -9.6 | -8.1 | -2.9 | ||||
| Expenditure | -20.6 | -17.7 | -6.4 | 38.1 | -11.2 | -10.7 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -0.7 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||||||||
| Investment and savings | |||||||||||||
| Gross investment | 10.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.1 | ||||
| Gross national savings | 10.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | ||||
| Government finance | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 18.6 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 11.6 | ||||
| Of which: hydrocarbon revenue | 14.8 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 6.7 | ||||
| non-hydrocarbon revenue | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | ||||
| Expenditure | 16.8 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 11.6 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (Commitment basis) | 1.8 | -1.7 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (Cash basis)2 | -0.5 | -3.2 | 1.0 | -2.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon primary balance3 | -12.2 | -11.1 | -8.7 | -8.5 | -7.7 | -7.3 | -6.9 | -6.4 | -5.8 | ||||
| Outstanding public debt4 | 43.2 | 48.4 | 42.8 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.2 | 24.1 | 21.1 | ||||
| Change in domestic arrears | -2.3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| External sector | |||||||||||||
| Current account balance (including official transfers; – = deficit) | -0.9 | -4.2 | -3.4 | -1.6 | -2.1 | -5.3 | -6.4 | -7.1 | -7.0 | ||||
| Total external public debt | 14.0 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | ||||
| External debt service-to-exports ratio (percent) | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 9.9 | ||||
| External debt service/government revenue (percent) | 11.9 | 14.4 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 15.5 | 16.8 | ||||
| Memorandum items | |||||||||||||
| CEMAC Foreign Reserves | |||||||||||||
| (US$ billions, end-of-period)5 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | n.a | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | ||||
| (in months of extrazone imports) | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | n.a | n.a | ||||
| Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel)6 | 54.5 | 39.1 | 67.3 | 107.7 | 92.9 | 84.1 | 78.2 | 74.4 | 71.8 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs) | 6,658 | 5,813 | 6,804 | 9,819 | 8,946 | 7,794 | 7,755 | 7,667 | 7,846 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars) | 11,364 | 10,099 | 12,269 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Non-hydrocarbon GDP (billions of CFA francs) | 3,905 | 3,832 | 4,003 | 4,323 | 4,707 | 5,002 | 5,410 | 5,810 | 6,214 | ||||
| Oil volume (crude + condensado, millions of barrels) | 53 | 52 | 43 | 43 | 38 | 30 | 29 | 25 | 22 | ||||
| Exchange rate (average; CFA francs/U.S. dollar) | 585.9 | 575.6 | 554.5 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
Including oil, LNG, LPG, butane, propane, and methanol.
Includes a one-time clearance of outstanding arrears through securitization in 2022.
Excluding oil revenues, and interest earned and paid.
Outstanding public debt includes domestic arrears, which amounted to 9.2 percent of GDP in 2021.
The SDR allocation is not included in this figure.
The local price of crude oil is the Brent and includes a quality discount.
Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found h ere: http://0-www-IMF-org.library.svsu.edu/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
