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IMF Country Report No. 22/83

SAMOA

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT—CLIMATE MACROECONOMIC ASSESSMENT PROGRAM

March 2022

This technical assistance report on Samoa was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 2021.

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Title page

FISCAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT

Samoa

Climate Macroeconomic Assessment Program

(CMAP)

Y. Kinoshita (Head), Z. Aligishiev, C. Alonso, C. Chen, K. Funke, A. Hosny, K. Kirabaeva, D. Prihardini, S. Suphachalasai, A. Swiston, E. Tandberg, and G. Zinabou

March 2022

This technical assistance (TA) was provided with financial support of the Government of Germany.

Contents

  • ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

  • PREFACE

  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND IMPACT

  • A. Impact of Climate Change Risks on the Macro Framework and Long-Term Outlook

  • NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

  • B. The NDC and Other Climate Resilience Building Strategies

  • MITIGATION PLANS

  • C. Meeting Emission Reduction Targets

  • D. Carbon Taxation and Fuel Subsidy Policies

  • E. Distributional Impact of Recommended Mitigation Strategies

  • DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

  • F. Risk Assessment

  • G. Risk Retention

  • H. Risk Transfer

  • I. Financial Sector Preparedness

  • ADAPTATION PLANS

  • J. Adaptation Policies and Planning

  • K. Implementation of Adaptation Plans

  • L. Evolution of Adaptation Plans

  • MACRO-FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE POLICY

  • M. Cost of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Investment

  • N. Consistency of Climate Change Policies and Financing Plans with Fiscal and External Debt Sustainability

  • O. Sources of Financing

  • PUBLIC INVESTMENT AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

  • P. Adequacy of Public Investment Management

  • Q. Adequacy of Other Public Financial Management Practices

  • BOXES

  • 1. Summary of Key Recommendations

  • 2. Climate Tagging System

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Building, Roads, and Coastal Lines

  • 2. Frequency and Total Damages of Natural Disasters, 1980–2020

  • 3. Key Elements of Samoa’s Strategic Planning Framework

  • 4. GHG Emissions, 2018

  • 5. Effect of RE Penetration on Electricity Tariff

  • 6. Current vs Efficient Excise Level

  • 7. Distributional Impact of Proposed Mitigation Package

  • 8. Digital IDs

  • 9. Approvals of WB Cat-DDOs

  • 10. Ex-post Multilateral/Regional Instruments in Samoa

  • 11. Disaster Risk Financing in Samoa

  • 12. Mobile and Internet Subscriptions

  • 13. Availability of Traditional vs Digital Financial Services

  • 14. Spending Needs vs. Identified Financing, 2022–2026

  • 15. Simulation of Impact of Ex-ante Adaptation Investment on GDP and Debt

  • 16. Present Value of Public Debt to GDP Ratio

  • 17. Climate Finance in Samoa

  • TABLES

  • 1. Strategic Gaps in Nationally Determined Contribution and Other Climate Plans

  • 2. Climate Risk Profile

  • 3. Mitigation Objectives, Proposed Actions and Estimated Costs

  • 4. Fiscal and FX Buffers in Selected PICs

  • 5. PCRAFI PCRIC Insurance

  • 6. Adaptation Policy Gap Assessment

  • 6. Adaptation Policy Gap Assessment

  • 7. Non-Fiscal Public Programs for Adaptation

  • 8. Spending Needs for Adaptation, Social Resilience and Mitigation

  • 9. Discounted Net Savings of International Donors

  • 10. Climate PIMA Heat Map

  • 11. PCs Involved in Climate-Relevant Infrastructure

  • 12. Major Climate Related Investment Projects 2021/22

  • ANNEX

  • I. The DIGNAD Model

  • References

Abbreviations and Acronyms

AAL

Annual Average Losses

ADB

Asian Development Bank

AFOLU

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use

APDRF

Asia-Pacific Disaster Response Fund

BEV

Battery Electric Vehicle

Cat-DDO

Deferred Drawdown Option

CBS

Central Bank of Samoa

CDC

Cabinet Development Committee

CDF

Contingent Disaster Financing

CERC

Contingency Emergency Response Components

CIM

Community Integrated Management

CMAP

Climate Macroeconomic Assessment Program

CMIP

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

CRICD

Climate Resilience Investment and Coordination Division (in MOF)

CRSC

Climate Resilience Steering Committee

CRW

Crisis Response Window

DAC

Development Assistance Committee

DIGNAD

Debt, Investment, Growth, Natural Disasters

DMO

Disaster Management Office

DPO

Development Policy Operation

DRFI

Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance

DSA

Debt Sustainability Analysis

EIA

Environmental Impact Assessment

EPC

Electric Power Corporation

ERSP

Economic Recovery and Support Program

ESF-RAC

Rapid Access Component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility

ESSSAP

Enhancing Safety Security and Sustainability of Apia Ports

EV

Electric Vehicles

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FSAP

Financial Sector Assessment Program

FX

Foreign Exchange

GAR

Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

GCF

Green Climate Fund

GEF

Global Environment Facility

GHG

Greenhouse Gas

GIS

Geographic Information System

HEV

Hybrid Electric Vehicle

ICE

Internal Combustion Engine

IDA

International Development Association

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPP

Independent Power Producer

LPG

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

LTA

Land Transport Authority

M&E

Monitoring and Evaluation

MAF

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

MESC

Ministry of Education, Sports & Culture

MNRE

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

MOF

Ministry of Finance

MPE

Ministry of Public Enterprises

MPMC

Ministry of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

MTEF

Medium Term Expenditure Framework

MWTI

Ministry of Works, Transport and Infrastructure

NAP

National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management

NAPA

National Adaptation Programme of Action

NCCP

National Climate Change Policy

NDC

Nationally Determined Contribution

NDMP

National Disaster Management Plan

NESP

National Environment Sector Plan

PC

Public Corporations

PCRAFI

Pacific Catastrophe and Risk Financing Initiative

PCRIC

Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company

PCRP

Pilot Climate Resilience Program

PEFA

Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability

PFI

Public Financial Institutions

PFM

Public Finance Management

PHEV

Plug in hybrid electric vehicle

PPA

Power Purchase Agreement

PPCR

Enhancing Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources & Communities

PPP

Public-Private Partnership

PREP

Pacific Resilience Program

PSIP

Public Sector Investment Plan

PUMA

Planning and Urban Management Agency

PV

Present Value

RCF

Rapid Credit Facility

RE

Renewable Energy

REDD

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation

SAO

Samoa Audit Office

SAT

Samoan Tala

SCCP

Samoa Climate Change Policy

SDG

Sustainable Development Goals

SDS

Strategy for the Development of Samoa

SFESA

Samoa Fire and Emergency Services Authority

SIDS

Small Island Developing States

SNPF

Samoa National Provident Fund

SOE

State-Owned Enterprise

TC

Tropical Cyclone

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

VAT

Value-Added Tax

WB

World Bank

Samoa: Technical Assistance Report—Climate Macroeconomic Assessment Program
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.