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© 2005 International Monetary Fund

March 2005

IMF Country Report No. 05/96

Namibia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper for Namibia was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 28, 2005. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Namibia or the Executive Board of the IMF.

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

NAMIBIA

Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Prepared by Johannes Mueller (head), Patrick Akatu, Irene Yackovlev (all AFR), Koshy Mathai (FAD), and Manmohan Singh (ICM)

Approved by African Department

January 28, 2005

Contents

• I. The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Namibia

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Targets and Outcome Indicators under MTP III

  • C. The Growth Accounting Framework

  • D. Fiscal Impact of HIV/AIDS

  • E. Conclusions

• Boxes

• I.1. Main Components of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy

• I.2. The Impact of MTP III on the Contribution of Human Capital to Growth

• Figures

• I.1. Sources of Growth (Baseline Scenario)

• I.2. Sources of Growth (Alternative Scenario)

• Text Tables

• I.1. Cost by Component as Estimated in MTP III

• I.2. Revised Estimates of Cost by Component

• I.3. HIV/AIDS Expenditure Financing

• II. The New SACU Agreement and Namibia’s Revenue Outlook Over the Medium Term

  • A. Introduction

  • B. The New SACU Agreement

  • C. The Revenue-Sharing Formula

  • D. Namibia’s Medium-Term Revenue Outlook

  • E. Conclusions

• Boxes

• II.1. Trade Policy Reform Under the New SACU Agreement

• Figures

• II. 1. Actual and Projected SACU Revenue

• II. 2. Actual and Projected SACU Revenue With 25 Percent Development Component

• Text Tables

• II.1. Projected Shares of the Common Revenue Pool, 2004/05

• III. The Namibian Civil Service and the Government Wage Bill

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Namibia’s Civil Service and Wage Bill in International Comparison

  • C. Analysis of Namibia’s Civil Service and Wage Bill Over Time and Across Ministries

  • D. Civil Service Reform Efforts: Past, Present, and Future

  • E. Conclusions

• Boxes

• III.1. The World Bank and Civil Service Reform

• Figures

• III.1. Selected African Countries: Wage Bill (percent of GDP)

• III.2. Selected African Countries: Wage Bill (percent of total expenditure)

• III.3. Selected African Countries: Ratio of Average Government Wage to GDP Per Capita

• III.4. Selected African Countries: Central Government Employment

• III.5. Selected African Countries: Civil Service Wage Bill Versus Employment

• III.6. Regional and Income-Group Average: Civil Service Wage Bill Versus Employment

• III.7. Selected African Countries: Armed Forces

• III.8. Selected African Countries: Police

• III.9. Central Government Wage Bill, 1995/96–2004/05

• III.10. Size of Civil Service, 1995/96–2004/05

• III.11. Percent of Established Positions Filled, by Vote, 2004/05

• III.12. Filled Civil Service Positions, by Vote, 1995/96–2004/05

• III.13 Shares of Total Personnel Expenditure, by Vote, 2004/05

• III.14. Average Compensation per Employee, by Vote, 2004/05

• III.15. Decomposition of Personnel Expenditure, 2004/05

• III.16. Cash Allowances as a Percent of Monetary Compensation, by Vote, 2004/05

• Text Tables

• III.1. Public-Private Pay Differentials, 1995/96

• IV. International Reserves and Investment Decisions by Institutional Investors

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Namibia’s Financial Sector

  • C. Major Factors Behind Capital Outflows to South Africa

  • D. Developing Domestic Financial Markets

  • E. Conclusions

• Boxes

• IV.1. Issuing a Eurobond

• IV.2. Recent Widening in Namibian Bond Spreads Vis-à-Vis South Africa

• Figures

• IV. 1. Total Assets of Pension and Insurance Companies, 1995–2003

• IV. 2. Total Government Debt Outstanding, 1995–2004

• IV. 3. Capital Outflows and Bank Foreign Liabilities, 1999–2003

• Text Tables

• IV.1. Structure of Financial System, end-2003

• IV. 2. Pension Funds Portfolio Limits and Actual Asset Allocation, 2001–02

• Tables

• 1. GDP and Gross National Income (GNI) at Current Prices, 1998–2003

• 2. GDP by Industrial Origin at Current Prices, 1998–2003

• 3. GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant 1995 Prices, 1998–2003 (Namibia dollars)

• 4. GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant 1995 Prices, 1998–2003 (percentage change)

• 5. Expenditure on GDP, 1998–2003

• 6. Output of Selected Minerals, 1998–2003

• 7. Harvest of Main Commercial Fishing Species, 1998–2003

• 8. Consumer Price Index (Windhoek), January 2001–November 2004

• 9. Financial Operations of the Central Government, 1998/99–2003/04

• 10. Central Government Revenue and Grants, 1998/99–2003/04 (Namibia dollars)

• 11. Central Government Revenue and Grants, 1998/99–2003/04 (percent GDP)

• 12. Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99–2003/04 (Namibia dollars)

• 13. Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99–2003/04 (percent GDP)

• 14. Functional Classification of Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99–2003/04

• 15. Sectoral Share of Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99–2003/04

• 16. Outstanding Debt of Central Government, 1998/99–2003/04

• 17. Monetary Survey, 1998–2003

• 18. Summary Accounts of the Bank of Namibia, 1998–2003

• 19. Interest Rates, 1998–2003

• 20. Financial Soundness Indicators, 1998–2003

• 21. Selected Indicators of Stock Exchange Activity, 1998–2003

• 22. Balance of Payments, 1998–2003 (in millions of Namibia dollars

• 23. Balance of Payments, 1998–2003 (in millions of U.S. dollars)

• 24. Merchandise Exports by Commodity Group, 1998–2003

• 25. Mineral Exports, 1998–2003

• 26. External Trade Indices, 1998–2003

• 27. Merchandise Imports by Commodity Group, 1998–2003

• 28. Imports (c.i.f) by Country of Origin, 1998–2003

• 29. Exports by Country Destination, 1998–2003

• 30. Developments in the Exchange Rate of the Namibia Dollar, 1995–2004

• Summary of Tax System, November 2004