A version of this paper has been accepted for publication by the Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Agarwal is an economist at the IMF and Reed is an economist at the World Bank’s Development Research Group. We thank Kathleen Beegle, Michael S. Bennett, Chad Bown, Nick Caroll, Mukesh Chawla, Deon Filmer, Shakill Hassan, Aart Kraay, Samuel Maimbo, Barbara McGowan, Traci Phillips, Karen Pillay, Shirmila T Ramasamy, Dirk Reinermann, Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder, Daniel Susskind, Darius Stangu, Daria Taglioni, Patricia Wycoco, the editors, and an anonymous referee for useful comments. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and World Bank or their affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the IMF and the World Bank, their Managements, or the governments they represent.