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© 2022 International Monetary Fund

WP/22/45

IMF Working Paper

Statistics Department

Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Prepared by Stephanie Medina Cas, Yasmin Alem, and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa

Authorized for distribution by Christine Dieterich

February 2022

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

ABSTRACT: Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.

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Title Page

WORKING PAPERS

Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Prepared by Stephanie Medina Cas, Yasmin Alem, and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa1

Contents

  • Glossary

  • I. Introduction

  • II. Statistical Characteristics of FCS

  • III. Data Issues

  • IV. CD Challenges

  • V. CD Delivery to FCS

  • VI. CD Delivery Through RCDCs and Thematic Trust Funds

  • VII. Monitoring Targeted Results

  • VIII. Determinants of STA CD Mission Delivery

  • IX. FCS Case Studies: Strategic Policy Findings

  • X. Lessons and Conclusion

  • Annexes on FCS Case Studies

    • I. Case Study on Djibouti

    • II. Case Study on Haiti

    • III. Case Study on Kosovo

    • IV. Case Study on Madagascar

    • V. Case Study on Myanmar

  • References

  • BOXES

  • 1. IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives and FCS

  • 2. Statistical Innovation and Big Data in FCS

  • FIGURES

  • 1. High Risk Locations

  • 2a. World Bank Methodology Assessment of Statistical Capacity for FCS and Non-FCS

  • 2b. World Bank Methodology Assessment of Statistical Capacity for FCS and Non-FCS

  • 3a. Countries Facing Resource Challenges

  • 3b. Countries Facing Source Data Challenges

  • 3c. Countries Facing Institutional Cooperation Challenges

  • 4. RBM Risk Ratings by Category, FY2017–21

  • 5a. STA CD Missions

  • 5b. STA CD Missions Annual Growth Rates

  • 5c. STA CD Spending

  • 6. Average STA CD Delivery to FCS, by Region

  • 7. STA CD Missions to Fragile Countries

  • 8. Global Intensity of STA CD Mission Delivery to FCS

  • 9. STA CD Delivery to FCS by Statistical Topic and Region

  • 10a. Share of STA CD Missions to FCS, by Funding Source

  • 10b. Share of STA CD Missions to non-FCS, by Funding Source

  • 11. STA CD to FCS by HQ and RCDC

  • 12a. FCS Membership in RCDC

  • 12b. STA CD to FCS, by RCDC

  • 13. STA HQ and RCDC CD Delivery to FCS

  • 14. FSSF TA Mission Delivery

  • 15. D4D Fund CD Beneficiaries

  • 16a. STA CD to FCS, by Modality

  • 16b. STA CD to Non-FCS, by Modality

  • 17a. Active Participants in STA Online Courses

  • 18. STA’s Tailoring of CD for Fragile States at Different Levels of Fragility

  • 19. RBM Logframe

  • 20a. FCS Average Milestone Rating by Region and Topic, FY2016–21

  • 20b. Non-FCS Average Milestone Rating by Region and Topic, FY2016

  • 21. Frequency Distribution of STA Target Outcome Achievements

  • TABLES

  • 1. FCS Overview

  • 2a. Breakdown of Statistical Methodology Assessment

  • 2b. Statistical Methodology Assessment Criteria

  • 3. Fragile and Conflict-Affected States and IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives

  • 4. Text Mining of Statistical Scorecards

  • 5. Determinants of Statistical CD Missions

  • 6. Summary Statistics

  • 7. Case Studies Overview and Selection Criteria

Glossary

ADB

Asian Development Bank

AFC

Central Africa Technical Assistance Center

AFE

East Africa Technical Assistance Center

AfDB

African Development Banks

AFR

African Department

AFS

Regional Technical Assistance Center for Southern Africa

AFW

West Africa Technical Assistance Center

AFW2

West Africa II Regional Technical Assistance Center

APD

Asia and Pacific Department

ATI

Africa Training Institute

BFM

Banky Foiben’i Madagasikara

BPM6

Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual

BRH

Banque de la République d’Haïti

CARTAC

Regional Technical Assistance Center for the Caribbean

CBD

The Central Bank of Djibouti

CBK

Central Bank of Kosovo

CBM

The Central Bank of Myanmar

CCAMTAC

The Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center

CCRT

Catastrophe Containment Relief Trust

CD

Capacity Development

CDIS

Coordinated Direct Investment Survey

CDOT

Capacity Development Office in Thailand

CEF

Center of Excellence of Finance

CEF

Middle East Center for Economics and Finance

CEM

Caisse d’Epargne de Madagascar

CES

Country Engagement Strategies

COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019

CPI

Consumer Price Index

CPIA

Country Policy and Institutional Assessment

D4D Fund

Data for Decisions Fund

DFID

The United Kingdom Department for International Development

DI

Direct Investment

DICA

Directorate of Investment and Company Administration

DSSI

Debt Service Suspension Initiative

ECF

Extended Credit Facility

EDDI2

Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative 2

e-GDDS

Enhanced General Data Dissemination System

ETS

External Trade Statistics

EU

European Union

FAD

Fiscal Affairs Department

FAS

Financial Access Survey

FCS

Fragile and Conflict-affected States

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

FSSF

The Financial Sector Stability Fund

FTZs

Free Trade Zones

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GFSM

Government Finance Statistics Manual

HICP

European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices

HRL

High-risk Location

IEO

Independent Evaluation Office

JSA

Japan Sub-Account

KAS

The Kosovo Agency of Statistics

LLMIC

Low and Lower-Middle-Income Countries

MCD

Middle East and Central Asia

MCM

Monetary and Capital Markets Department

MEFP

Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies

METAC

Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center

MFSM

Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual

MIP

Management Implementation Plan

MOPFI

Ministry of Planning, Finance and Investment

NSDP

National Summary Data Page

ODP

Open Data Platform

PFM

Public Financial Management

PFTAC

Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Center

PPI

Producer Price Index

RBM

Results-based Management

RCDCs

Regional Capacity Development Centers

RCF

Rapid Credit Facilities

RFI

Rapid Financing Instrument

SARTTAC

South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center

SDDS

Special Data dissemination Standard

SDGs

Sustainable Development Goals

SDMX

Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange

SNA

System of National Accounts

SRFs

Standardized Report Forms

STA

Statistics Department

TA

Technical Assistance

Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Author: Yasmin Alem and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa