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  • 1 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Nour Tawk.

WP/21/247

[2021] [OCT]

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© 2021 International Monetary Fund

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

WP/21/247

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, Siddharth Kothari, JonathanD. Ostry, and Nour Tawk

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16,2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.

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Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes
Author: Mr. Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, Siddharth Kothari, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, and Nour Tawk