Front Matter
  • 1 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund
  • | 2 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund

Front Matter Page

Research Department

Contents

  • I. Introduction

  • II. Related Literature

    • A. Optimal Oil Production

    • B. Numerical Solutions for Real Options

  • III. Model Formulation and Numerical Solution

    • A. Model Formulation

    • B. Numerical Solution

  • IV. Oil Price and Extraction Costs Models

  • V. Learning the Size of Reserves

  • VI. Application

  • VII. Results

  • VIII. Limitations of the Model

  • IX. Determinants of Production Policies during the 2008–2009 Crisis

  • X. Concluding Remarks and the World Supply of Oil

  • Tables

  • 1. Parameters of the Oil Price Process (OLS on Yearly Data for the Period 1957–2008)

  • 2. Parameters of the Schwartz-Smith (2000) Price Process Estimated on Futures Data

  • 3. Annualized Parameters of the Extraction Cost Process (OLS on quarterly Data for the Period 1999–Q1 to 2009–Q1

  • 4. Model for Proven Reserves (Standard Errors in Parentheses

  • 5. Oil Production Capacity

  • 6. Added Value by Expanded Capacity

  • 7. Added Value by Expanded Capacity and Increased Access to Reserve

  • 8. Determinants of Cuts in Production During the Crisis of 2008–2009

  • References

  • Figures

  • 1. Standard Deviation of Change in Reserves

  • 2. Optimal Extration—Brazil and U.A.E

  • 3. Sensitivity to Key Parameters

  • 4. Sensitivity to Key Parameters

  • 5. Determinants of the Cut in Oil Production During the Crisis of 2008–2009

  • 6. World Oil Market

Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil
Author: Mr. Nikolay Aleksandrov, Mr. lajos Gyurko, and Mr. Raphael A Espinoza