Global Variables under Alternative Scenarios
|Global Variables||2013–17 avg.||Financial|
|World GDP growth(Percent)||3.6||BL||2013: BL-1.5%|
|BL-1%||2013: Lehman-like 2014–17:|
2014–17: = BL
|BL||BL + 4 pts||2013: Lehman-like|
|10-year U.S. Treasury interest rate(Basis points)||300||2013: BL-100bps|
|Commodity prices||Food||−105||BL||2013: BL-10%7|
|BL-7%||2013: BL-15% 82014–17: BL-5%|
|BL-15%||2013: BL-45% 82014–17: BL-10%|
|BL-15%||2013: BL-35% 82014–17: BL-10%|
|Non debt flows||by country6||√||BL||BL* 0.7||2013: BL+2008–09 change2014|
Temporary financial shock affecting 2013 only. Financial variables return to projected path under the baseline in 2014.
Temporary real shock (commodity prices and world growth) in 2013–14. Variables return to projected path under the baseline in 2015.
Global slowdown over the whole forecast horizon.
Lehman-like event in 2013–14, with protracted impact on global growth, commodity prices, and the VIX.
Relative to 2012 level.
As projected by country desks for each country.
Reported gap vis-à-vis baseline is reached by end-2013. Prices recover gradually afterwards to reach baseline by end-2014.
Reported gap vis-à-vis baseline is reached by 2013:Q2. Prices recover gradually afterwards to reach new path by end-2014.