2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zimbabwe
Abstract
This paper presents the economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2005. Against a background of an easing of demand for imports in advanced countries, average real GDP growth is expected to decline slightly in 2005 from its strong performance in 2004. The slowdown in 2005, however, is attributable primarily to lower growth in most of the oil-producing countries following the exceptional increases in oil production capacity established during 2003 and 2004, especially in Nigeria. Non-oil-producing countries are expecting average growth of about 4.5 percent, similar to that observed in 2004.
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes recent trends in poverty and social indicators for Zimbabwe. It discusses land reform, agricultural policies, and the outcomes. The paper presents background information on the evolution of inflation and money aggregates in Zimbabwe. It analyzes the demand of money since the late 1990s, and discusses factors that can lead to diverging paths of inflation and money growth in the short term. The paper also analyzes Zimbabwe’s export performance in recent years, and identifies the factors that could improve export performance, from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective.
Agriculture is an important sector of the Zimbabwean economy. At independence, land ownership was highly skewed, as the sector was dominated by a few commercial farms. The initial phases of land reform, along with liberalization of the agricultural sector throughout the 1990s, helped to increase Zimbabwe’s agricultural productivity, but these gains have been reversed over the past few years. After the bumper crop season of 1999/2000, yields have plummeted, owing to droughts and the disruption of commercial farming under the Fast-Track Land Reform Program. The future of the sector is largely dependent on the success of resettled farmers, which requires better weather conditions, the availability of inputs and capital, and a stable economic environment. Preliminary data for the 2002/03 crop season indicate that, for many of Zimbabwe’s main crops, production continues to be low.
The major public enterprises in Zimbabwe face many problems. The shortage of foreign exchange is the single most important obstacle facing the enterprises. Many companies also have a heavy debt burden and lack working capital. Maintenance and rehabilitation have been neglected for many years, and as a result, enterprises are burdened with a depleted capital stock and several operate at very low capacity levels. All public enterprises operate at controlled prices, which constrain their profitability.
This paper describes the need to broaden the agenda for poverty reduction. The broadening of the agenda follows from a growing understanding that poverty is more than low income, a lack of education, and poor health. The poor are frequently powerless to influence the social and economic factors that determine their well being. The paper highlights that a broader definition of poverty requires a broader set of actions to fight it and increases the challenge of measuring poverty and comparing achievement across countries and over time.