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Mr. Markus Haacker

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. The paper highlights that the mortality and morbidity associated with AIDS make it unlike most other types of sickness and disease. The paper describes the most common approaches used in accounting for growth in the context of an HIV/AIDS epidemic. The impact of HIV/AIDS on education and the accumulation of human capital is discussed. The paper also discusses the impact of HIV/AIDS on the public sector, and elaborates certain demographic events specific to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

International Monetary Fund

HIV/AIDS is a major and immediate concern for Zimbabwe. Current prevalence rates are at a level close to 20 percent of the total population, and at over 30 percent for adults in the 15–49 age group. The number of AIDS-related deaths, and of orphans are indicative of the adverse, current and future impact upon a fragile health-care system, fiscal balance, human capital accumulation, production, and economic growth. The food shortages of the past year have exacerbated the situation, as many patients fail to attain adequate nutrition levels and food intake and their families’ coping mechanisms are stretched to the limit. This chapter presents an overview of recent trends in prevalence rates; discusses the impact on social sectors and the strategies being adopted by the government and the international community to address these; and summarizes quantitative estimates of the fiscal burden and overall medium-term macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS on Zimbabwe.

Mr. Markus Haacker
The paper provides an analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector, public education, the supply of labor and the returns to training in nine Southern African countries. Drawing on the preceding sections, it assesses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income in a neoclassical growth framework. HIV/AIDS affects per capita income mainly through its impact of human capital, as measured by the supply of experienced workers. Other factors include the impact on capital accumulation, on education, and on total factor productivity.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Southern Africa is the region of the world hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, with HIV prevalence rates ranging from about 15 percent to 35 percent of the adult population. Addressing an area in which little research has been done and few data are available, Economist Markus Haacker of the IMF’s African Department studied the economic consequences of HIV/AIDS in nine southern African countries, including the effects on the health sector, public education, and the labor supply. He recently spoke to the IMF Survey about his study.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

When an IMF mission visited Swaziland for the annual Article IV consultation in April 2000, it discussed with the authorities the economic and social implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that the country is experiencing. This article highlights some of the issues that emerged during the visit, such as the scale of the demographic impact, the impact on the public and private sectors, and government strategies to combat the epidemic.

Lyn Squire

If developing countries face up to the realities of AIDS and act quickly, millions of lives can be saved. The three articles on AIDS in this issue look at the epidemic from an economic perspective and outline priorities for developing countries in preventing the spread of HIV and helping people already infected.

Nancy Birdsall and Frederick T. Sai

This paper examines the policy implications of structural changes in financial markets. Domestic financial markets have become less segmented, and the major financial centers more integrated. At the same time, the structural changes in financial markets have improved efficiency by lowering intermediation costs, increasing the ability to hedge financial risks associated with currency, interest rate, and price volatility and opening up access to new sources of savings. The widespread application of computer and telecommunications technology to financial markets has permitted markets to process a significantly larger volume of transactions.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

This paper examines the policy of protectionism in world trade. It reviews alternatives to trade restrictions, factors influencing trade policies, and implications of protection for developing countries. The paper highlights that the rise in protectionist pressures is worrisome, because the likelihood of chain reactions toward more protectionism generated by individual restrictive actions is greatest in a setting of slow economic growth and highly interdependent economies. The paper also analyzes capital utilization in the manufacturing enterprises.

Mr. Markus Haacker

Abstract

It is now 20 years since the first cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) were discovered in sub-Saharan Africa. At the beginning of the third decade of the global pandemic, AIDS has reversed gains in life expectancy and improvements in child mortality in many countries; mortality among the population aged 15–49 has increased manyfold, even in countries with modest epidemics.1 AIDS is the leading cause of mortality among adults (WHO, 2004). According to estimates by the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS), as of the end of 2003, over 20 million people had died of AIDS. Some 38 million people are estimated to be living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the virus that causes AIDS, the overwhelming majority of whom—over 90 percent—are in the developing world.

Mr. Markus Haacker

Abstract

Any discussion of the impact of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) on health care systems must distinguish between treatment of the opportunistic illnesses associated with AIDS and treatment directed at the underlying cause, namely, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Treatment of opportunistic illnesses can alleviate suffering but typically extends life by only months. Treatment that controls the HIV in the patient’s body, called antiretroviral therapy or ART, can be much more successful, adding years to life expectancy.