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International Monetary Fund
This Annual Progress Report reviews the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and Economic and Social Plan for 2007 for Mozambique. The report presents the new simplified structure adopted in the Review of the First Half of 2007. In the international context, the evolution of the international economy is presented, which allows a visualization of the international economic conditions in which the country has implemented its economic and social policy. The activities of the environment and the science and technology sectors are also described.
International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes recent trends in poverty and social indicators for Zimbabwe. It discusses land reform, agricultural policies, and the outcomes. The paper presents background information on the evolution of inflation and money aggregates in Zimbabwe. It analyzes the demand of money since the late 1990s, and discusses factors that can lead to diverging paths of inflation and money growth in the short term. The paper also analyzes Zimbabwe’s export performance in recent years, and identifies the factors that could improve export performance, from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective.

Mr. Markus Haacker

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. The paper highlights that the mortality and morbidity associated with AIDS make it unlike most other types of sickness and disease. The paper describes the most common approaches used in accounting for growth in the context of an HIV/AIDS epidemic. The impact of HIV/AIDS on education and the accumulation of human capital is discussed. The paper also discusses the impact of HIV/AIDS on the public sector, and elaborates certain demographic events specific to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews Mozambique’s economic and social plan for 2003. It presents the actions that have been taken to improve the current planning instrument. The paper outlines the social and demographic profile of Mozambique and reviews the extent to which the current strategy for the reduction of absolute poverty in the country is meeting its aims. Results are presented in terms of changes in the welfare indicators, and the extent to which Mozambique is on course to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.
International Monetary Fund

HIV/AIDS is a major and immediate concern for Zimbabwe. Current prevalence rates are at a level close to 20 percent of the total population, and at over 30 percent for adults in the 15–49 age group. The number of AIDS-related deaths, and of orphans are indicative of the adverse, current and future impact upon a fragile health-care system, fiscal balance, human capital accumulation, production, and economic growth. The food shortages of the past year have exacerbated the situation, as many patients fail to attain adequate nutrition levels and food intake and their families’ coping mechanisms are stretched to the limit. This chapter presents an overview of recent trends in prevalence rates; discusses the impact on social sectors and the strategies being adopted by the government and the international community to address these; and summarizes quantitative estimates of the fiscal burden and overall medium-term macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS on Zimbabwe.

Mr. Markus Haacker and Mr. N. F. R. Crafts
The paper evaluates the impact of HIV/AIDS on welfare in several countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Unlike studies focusing on the impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP per capita, we evaluate the impact of increased mortality using estimates of the value of statistical life. Our results illustrate the catastrophic impact of HIV/AIDS in the worst-affected countries and suggest that studies focusing on GDP and income per capita capture only a very small proportion of the welfare impact of HIV/AIDS.
Mr. Markus Haacker
The paper provides an analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector, public education, the supply of labor and the returns to training in nine Southern African countries. Drawing on the preceding sections, it assesses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income in a neoclassical growth framework. HIV/AIDS affects per capita income mainly through its impact of human capital, as measured by the supply of experienced workers. Other factors include the impact on capital accumulation, on education, and on total factor productivity.
International Monetary Fund
This report highlights the growth and macroeconomic policies in Malawi, and also analyzes the interaction between aid flows and macroeconomic stabilization policy. The paper reviews the country's recent trade reform program and summarizes other associated reforms and changes in the pattern of trade. It provides a survey of selected studies on the direct impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality and morbidity, measures of their possible effects on output, growth, and the fiscal position, and also a statistical appendix is provided for the country.
International Monetary Fund
Fiscal profligacy, an erosion of competitiveness, and governance problems have undermined investor confidence and curtailed access to foreign financing in Zimbabwe. The new economic team has taken steps in devaluing the currency and raising the awareness of public opinion about the size of the fiscal deficit and its root causes. Steadfast implementation of strong policies, backed by a broad domestic consensus, will help restore Zimbabwe's status as an anchor of stability and prosperity in southern Africa over the medium term.
Lyn Squire

If developing countries face up to the realities of AIDS and act quickly, millions of lives can be saved. The three articles on AIDS in this issue look at the epidemic from an economic perspective and outline priorities for developing countries in preventing the spread of HIV and helping people already infected.