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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen. Growth is expected to increase from 2.7 percent in 2017 to 3.1 percent in 2018, reflecting domestic policy adjustments and a supportive external environment, including continued steady growth in the global economy, higher commodity prices, and accommodative external financing conditions. Inflation is abating; and fiscal imbalances are being contained in many countries. Over the medium term, and on current policies, growth is expected to accelerate to about 4 percent, too low to create the number of jobs needed to absorb anticipated new entrants into labor markets.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, though with large variation among countries in the region. The sharp decline in commodity prices has severely strained many of the largest economies, including oil exporters Angola and Nigeria, and other commodity exporters, such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has helped other countries continue to show robust growth, including Kenya and Senegal. A strong policy response to the terms-of-trade shocks is critical and urgent in many countries. This report also examines sub-Saharan Africa’s vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and documents the substantial progress made in financial develop, especially financial services based on mobile technologies.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The sharp decline in oil and other commodity prices have adversely impacted sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the region is projected to register another year of solid economic performance. In South Africa, however, growth is expected to remain lackluster, while in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone the Ebola outbreak continues to exact a heavy economic and social toll. This report also considers how sub-Saharan Africa can harness the demographic dividend from an unprecedented increase in the working age population, as well as the strength of the region's integration into global value chains.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment. Regional output rose by 5 percent in 2011, with growth set to increase slightly in 2012, helped by still-strong commodity prices, new resource exploitation, and the improved domestic conditions that have underpinned several years of solid trend growth in the region's low-income countries. But there is variation in performance across the region, with output in middle-income countries tracking more closely the global slowdown and with some sub-regions adversely affected, at least temporarily, by drought. Threats to the outlook include the risk of intensified financial stresses in the euro area spilling over into a further slowing of the global economy and the possibility of an oil price surge triggered by rising geopolitical tensions.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Tout porte à croire que l’année en cours sera, elle aussi, une année encourageante pour la plupart des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Sous l’effet surtout du dynamisme de la demande intérieure mais aussi du niveau élevé des cours des produits de base, l’économie de la région devrait croître de plus de 5¼ % en 2011. Pour 2012, selon les projections de référence des services du FMI, la croissance régionale devrait être supérieure à 5¾ %, compte tenu notamment des mesures ponctuelles prises par plusieurs pays pour stimuler la production. Mais il y a des fantômes au banquet : la hausse des prix mondiaux des produits de l’alimentation et de l’énergie, amplifiée par la sécheresse qui sévit par endroits, a mis à mal les budgets des pauvres et a provoqué une poussée d’inflation, et les hésitations de la reprise mondiale menacent d’assombrir les perspectives d’exportation et de croissance. Les projections régionales pour 2012 reposent en grande partie sur l’hypothèse que le rythme de croissance de l’économie mondiale se maintiendra autour de 4 %. Si la croissance continue de ralentir dans les pays avancés et que la demande mondiale s’en trouve freinée, l’expansion en cours dans la région connaîtra vraisemblablement de grandes difficultés, les pays les plus exposés étant probablement ceux qui sont plus intégrés à l’économie mondiale. Au cours des mois à venir, les autorités devront gérer un équilibre délicat entre, d’une part, la nécessité d’affronter les défis engendrés par la vigueur de la croissance et les récents chocs exogènes et, d’autre part, celle d’éviter les effets négatifs d’un nouveau ralentissement de l’activité mondiale. Dans certains pays moins dynamiques, qui sont surtout des pays à revenu intermédiaire et où la liberté d’action des autorités n’est pas soumise à des contraintes financières, il est clair que les pouvoirs publics doivent continuer de soutenir la croissance de la production, à plus forte raison si la croissance mondiale vacille. Pour autant que l’économie mondiale connaisse, comme prévu aujourd’hui, une croissance régulière mais faible, la plupart des pays à faible revenu de la région devraient fonder résolument leur politique budgétaire sur des considérations de moyen terme, tout en resserrant leur politique monétaire partout où l’inflation hors alimentation a dépassé 10 %. En cas de ralentissement de l’activité mondiale, sous réserve des contraintes de financement, ces pays devraient s’attacher à maintenir les initiatives de dépenses déjà prévues, en laissant jouer les stabilisateurs automatiques du côté des recettes. En ce qui concerne les pays exportateurs de pétrole, l’amélioration des termes de l’échange offre une bonne occasion de constituer des marges de manœuvre pour parer à un regain de volatilité des prix.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

This year looks set to be another encouraging one for most sub-Saharan African economies. Reflecting mainly strong demand but also elevated commodity prices, the region's economy is set to expand by more than 5¼ percent in 2011. For 2012, the IMF staff's baseline projection is for growth to be higher at 5¾ percent, owing to one-off boosts to production in a number of countries. There are, however, specters at the feast: the increase in global food and fuel prices, amplified by drought affecting parts of the region, has hit the budgets of the poor and sparked rising inflation, and hesitations in the global recovery threaten to weaken export and growth prospects. The projection for 2012 for the region is highly contingent on global economic growth being sustained at about 4 percent. A further slowing of growth in advanced economies, curtailing global demand, would generate significant headwinds for the region's ongoing expansion, with more globally integrated countries likely to be most affected. Policies in the coming months need to tread a fine line between addressing the challenges that strong growth and recent exogenous shocks have engendered and warding off the adverse effects of another global downturn. In some slower-growing, mostly middle-income countries without binding financial constraints, policies should clearly remain supportive of output growth, even more so if global growth sputters. Provided the global economy experiences the currently predicted slow and steady growth, most of the region's low-income countries should focus squarely on medium-term considerations in setting fiscal policy while tightening monetary policy wherever nonfood inflation has climbed above single digits. In the event of a global downturn, subject to financing constraints, policies in these countries should focus on maintaining planned spending initiatives, while allowing automatic stabilizers to operate on the revenue side. For the region's oil exporters, better terms of trade provide a good opportunity to build up policy buffers against further price volatility.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Tout porte à croire que le ralentissement économique en Afrique subsaharienne aura heureusement été de courte durée. La reprise est en cours dans toute la région. La relative capacité de résistance de la région lors de cette récession mondiale, qui distingue le dernier ralentissement en date des cycles précédents, réside dans le fait que la plupart des pays de la région ont abordé la crise dans de meilleures conditions sur le plan macroéconomique. Les politiques macroéconomiques anticycliques ont joué un rôle important : près des deux tiers des pays qui ont connu un ralentissement en 2009 ont été en mesure d'accroître leurs dépenses publiques pour soutenir l'activité économique. Toutefois, la réalisation des objectifs du millénaire pour le développement a été freinée. Les pays à revenu intermédiaire et les pays exportateurs de pétrole ont été touchés particulièrement durement par l'effondrement du commerce international et des marchés des produits de base ; les pays à faible revenu de la région ont relativement peu souffert. Désormais, dans la plupart des pays d'Afrique subsaharienne, les politiques budgétaires doivent privilégier les objectifs à moyen terme, les marges de manœuvre des politiques macroéconomiques doivent être reconstituées, les systèmes financiers doivent être renforcés. Document publié deux fois par an, en mai et en octobre.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The economic slowdown in sub-Saharan Africa looks set to be mercifully brief. Recovery is now under way across the region. The region's relative resilience during this global recession, compared with previous global downturns, owes much to the health of its economies and the strengthening of policy frameworks in the run-up to the crisis. Countercyclical macroeconomic policies played an important role, with nearly two-thirds of sub-Saharan Africa countries experiencing a slowdown in 2009 increasing government spending to buttress economic activity. However, progress toward the Millennium Development Goals receded. Middle-income and oil-exporting countries were hit hardest by the collapse in world trade and commodity markets; the region's low-income countries escaped fairly lightly. Looking ahead, fiscal policies in sub-Saharan Africa generally need to be refocused toward medium-term objectives, macroeconomic policy buffers rebuilt, and financial systems strengthened.