Africa > Zambia

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Saving and investment x
Clear All Modify Search
International Monetary Fund
This paper is the third in a series assessing macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). The first of these papers (IMF, 2014a) examined trends during 2000–2014, a period of sustained strong growth across most LIDCs. The second paper (IMF, 2015a) focused on the impact of the drop in global commodity prices since mid-2014 on LIDCs—a story with losers (countries dependent on commodity exports, notably fuel) and winners (countries with a more diverse export base, where growth remained robust). The overarching theme in this paper’s assessment of the macroeconomic conjuncture among LIDCs is that of incomplete adjustment to the new world of “lower for long” commodity prices, with many commodity exporters still far from a sustainable macroeconomic trajectory (Chapter 1). The analysis of risks and vulnerabilities focuses on financial sector stresses and medium-term fiscal risks, pointing to the actions, including capacity building, needed to manage and contain these challenges over time (Chapter 2). With 2016 the first year of the march towards the 2030 development goals, the paper also looks at how infrastructure investment can be accelerated in LIDCs, given that weaknesses in public infrastructure (such as energy, transportation systems) in LIDCs are widely seen as a key constraint on medium-term growth potential (Chapter 3). With the sharp adjustment in commodity prices now into its third year, some of the key messages of the paper are familiar: a) many commodity exporters, notably fuel producers, remain under significant economic stress, with sluggish growth, large fiscal imbalances, and weakened foreign reserve positions; b) countries with a more diversified export base are generally doing well, although several have been hit by declines in remittances, conflict/natural disasters, and the contractionary impact of macroeconomic stabilization programs; c) widening fiscal imbalances, in both commodity and diversified exporters, have resulted in rising debt levels, with severe financing stress emerging in some cases; and d) financial sector stresses have emerged in many LIDCs, with expectations that these strains will increase in many commodity exporters over the next 12–18 months. Key messages on financial sector oversight, on medium-term fiscal risks, and on tackling infrastructure gaps are flagged below. Read Executive Summary in: Arabic; Chinese; French; Spanish
Miss Nkunde Mwase and Mr. Francis Y Kumah
The economic literature has examined deposit dollarization in nominal terms, typically focusing on the ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money. However, while private agent demand for foreign currency may remain unchanged in foreign currency terms, there could be large fluctuations in the dollarization ratio simply due to exchange rate movements. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring dollarization that removes these exchange rate effects, and demonstrates that beyond the variance of inflation and depreciation, the level of inflation and size of depreciation also matter for dollarization. While dollarization in nominal terms surged during the recent global financial crisis, there was a downward trend in real terms. Employing a set of econometric estimators, this paper investigates whether “real” dollarization during 2006–09 was associated with the crisis, and the role of initial macroeconomic conditions, quality of institutions, risk aversion, and prudential measures. We find that exchange rate appreciation and reductions in sovereign risk do moderate dollarization; but the results for global volatility have low statistical significance, perhaps because global shocks tend to preserve, to a large extent, relative attractiveness of foreign assets. Nonetheless, estimated impulse-response functions point to a large but short-lived positive impact of global volatility on dollarization, which could reflect economic agents heightened concerns about spillover effects of global uncertainty on the domestic economy.
Ms. Doris C Ross, Victor Duarte Lledo, Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, Mr. Yuan Xiao, Ms. Iyabo Masha, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, and Mr. Keiichiro Inui
This publication highlights Mozambique’s remarkably strong growth over the two decades since the end of the civil war in 1992, as well as the major challenges that remain for the country to rise out of poverty and further its economic development. Chapters explore such topics as the role of megaprojects and their relationship to jobs and growth; infrastructure and public investment; Mozambique's quest for inclusive growth; developing the agricultural sector; and building a social protection floor.
International Monetary Fund
The emergence of BRICs—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—is reshaping low-income countries’ (LICs) international economic relations. While industrial countries remain LICs’ dominant development partners, LIC-BRIC ties have increased so rapidly over the past decade that BRICs have become new growth drivers for LICs. Trade with BRICs is already close to half of the value of combined trade with the European Union and the United States, and larger than with other emerging market economies. BRIC FDI and development financing are making a significant impact in some key areas despite their relatively small volumes compared with those from advanced countries. Beyond the increased flows of goods and capital, BRICs have brought new dynamics in LICs’ economic relations with the rest of the world, complementing as well as competing with OECD partners. Nevertheless, while potential benefits from the LIC-BRIC ties are enormous, there are challenges and risks in realizing such benefits.
Mr. Montfort Mlachila and Ms. Misa Takebe
Despite the rapid increase in FDI flows to LICs, there have been relatively few studies that have specifically examined these flows. This paper attempts to partially fill the void by throwing light on one particularly dynamic aspect of global FDI-flows from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs). The paper finds that official data sources undoubtedly underestimate the volume and scope of FDI flows as many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) do not always register their investment. As a result, while it is difficult to estimate accurately the growth impact of BRIC FDI, there is case study evidence that it is increasingly significant. Second, while initial investment, mostly by state-owned companies, has often been destined for natural resource industries, over time, investment has been spreading to agriculture, manufacturing, and service industries (e.g., telecommunications). Third, FDI from BRICs flows into many non resource-rich countries in LICs and plays a significant role in growth in those countries.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Le FMI publie deux fois par an des Perspectives économiques régionales pour cinq régions : Asie et Pacifique ; Europe ; Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale ; Afrique subsaharienne ; et hémisphère occidental. Chaque rapport aborde l'évolution économique récente et les perspectives de la région concernée, ainsi que pour certains pays. Les rapports comportent des données statistiques clés sur les pays de la région. Chaque rapport traite des politiques qui ont eu une incidence sur les résultats économiques régionaux et précise les enjeux auxquels les décideurs sont confrontés. Les perspectives à court terme, les principaux risques et les difficultés de politique économique afférentes sont analysés tout au long des rapports, qui examinent également l'actualité (par exemple, comment mettre fin progressivement à l'intervention publique tout en préservant une reprise économique mondiale qui reste fragile). Ces rapports précieux sont l'aboutissement d'études interdépartementales exhaustives, fondées pour l'essentiel sur les renseignements recueillis par les services du FMI dans le cadre de leurs consultations avec les pays membres.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook features: (i) an overview of economic developments and prospects in sub-Saharan Africa; (ii) an analytical assessment of how monetary policy changes are transmitted through the region's economies; and (iii) a study of why growth rates in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) have lagged behind other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. The overview highlights the broad-based economic recovery that is now under way in sub-Saharan Africa and projects growth of 5 percent in 2010 and 5½ percent in 2011. It explores the resilience of most economies in the region to the global financial crises of 2007-09 and explains why sound economic policy implementation and a growing orientation of trade toward Emerging Asia are expected to continue to underpin growth. The second chapter provides evidence suggesting that monetary policy may have more power to influence monetary conditions than previously assumed. Main messages from the WAEMU study are the importance of strong policy environments and political stability for achieving sustained growth; and of robust fiscal frameworks for directing resources towards priority spending needs.

International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses implementation of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP) in Zambia. The planning process of the FNDP integrated views from the Provincial and District Development Plans approved by the respective provincial and district level organs. The FNDP’s goals are multipronged. The government recognizes that wealth creation through sustained economic growth constitutes the most important element in poverty reduction and, consequently, a high premium is being placed on growth-stimulating interventions. The government also recognizes that redistributive policies do matter for reducing poverty and that growth and equity are not necessarily in conflict.
Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recently shown signs of improvement, but is still short of levels needed to attain the Millennium Development Goals. Economists have placed increasing emphasis on understanding the policies that promote sustained jumps in medium-term growth, and the paper applies this approach to African countries. The evidence presented finds an important growth-supporting role for particular kinds of institutions and policies, but also highlights aspects of growth that are still not well understood. The paper includes policy guidance for ensuring that the poor benefit from growth.

International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews Zambia’s Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Implementation Progress Report. The report reviews the status of the Poverty Reducing Programs (PRPs) for July 2003–June 2004. It notes improvement in funding to priority PRPs from K140 billion in January 2002–June 2003 to K430 billion in July 2003–June 2004. The report discusses that major improvements in public finance management were achieved in the first half of the budget year 2004, mainly owing to the introduction of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Activity-Based Budgeting.