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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Successful containment of COVID-19 and strong policy support have helped contain the health and economic fallout, and a strong recovery is underway. Growth in 2020 reached 2.9 percent, among the highest in the world. However, labor market conditions remain weak. Corporate balance sheets have worsened, potentially hampering private investment and job prospects. Banks entered the crisis in a stronger position than in previous years, but weaknesses remain. Vietnam’s economy remains heavily reliant on external trade and is vulnerable to trade tensions.
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Ricardo Marto, Jiri Jonas, and Kaitlyn Douglass
We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt sustainability for three fast-growing Southeast Asian economies: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. We show that a gradual public investment profile is more favorable than front-loading capital spending because we assume governments are able to gradually learn how to invest more efficiently, accelerating public capital accumulation and therefore growth. We discuss the pros and cons of alternative financing options and identify the financing mix that generates the best macroeconomic outcome. Sometimes overlooked, improving the efficiency of revenue collection over time may ease the burden of fiscal adjustment, achieving higher GDP growth with substantially lower debt-to-GDP ratios, and will help policymakers efficiently meet the challenge of addressing large infrastructure gaps while maintaining debt sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam’s economy has experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by rapid export growth, foreign direct investment, and strong domestic demand. Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end, reflecting slowing external demand. Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015 before ticking upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices. For 2016, growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions.
International Monetary Fund
This report examines macroeconomic developments and related vulnerabilities in low-income developing countries (LIDCs)—a group of 60 countries that have markedly different economic features to higher income countries and are eligible for concessional financing from both the IMF and the World Bank. Collectively, they account for about one-fifth of the world’s Population.
International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation focuses on the financial sector and macroeconomic situation in Vietnam. The authorities adopted a stabilization package in February 2011 in response to increasing pressures on prices and the exchange rate in late 2010. Executive Directors commended the tightening of macroeconomic policies in 2011, which contributed to declining inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and a rebuilding of international reserves. Directors also recommended that monetary policy give priority to reducing inflation and rebuilding reserves further.
International Monetary Fund
Real GDP growth slowed somewhat to 5.3 percent in 2009, its slowest pace since 2000, though Vietnam was among the better performers in developing Asia. An immediate challenge is to consolidate the current stable macroeconomic conditions through prudent policies and better communications. Over the medium term, Vietnam needs to implement fiscal consolidation with a view to lowering the public debt-to-GDP ratio. IMF staff welcomed the move to modernize and strengthen fiscal management. Staff argued for further reforms, as state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) still do not totally follow market-based business principles.
International Monetary Fund
Following an extended period of strong economic performance, Vietnam is facing considerable challenges. Growth moderated to 6.2 percent in 2008. Rapid credit growth fueled by massive capital inflows, coupled with a surge in commodity prices, led to high inflation and large trade deficits in the first half of 2008. Executive Directors have commended the Vietnamese authorities for the significant progress they have made in stabilizing the economy, which was overheating in 2008. Directors have also welcomed the recent improvements in inflation and the trade balance.
International Monetary Fund
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s (PDR) economy has performed well in recent years, owing to generally stable macroeconomic conditions and a rapidly expanding natural resource sector. Real GDP growth has averaged more than 7 percent since 2004. Growth is projected to reach 7½ percent in 2008, driven by similar factors as last year, as well as higher mining output. The medium-term outlook for Lao PDR remains positive, but hinges on sound development of the resource sector and other steps to strengthen competitiveness.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Food prices, Europe, Michael Deppler, Small States, Abdoulaye Bio-Tchane, Germany, Czech Fiscal Reform, Sustaining Growth, Decline in Funds to Emerging Markets, IMF Loan to Togo, Vietnam's New Challenges, News Briefs.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El FMI ayuda a formular políticas frente a la carestía de los alimentos; Nuevas pruebas para Europa, Michael Deppler; Entrevista con Abdoulaye Bio-Tchané Alemania: Examen anual; Reforma fiscal en la República Checa; Cómo sostener el crecimiento; Menor crédito a los mercados emergentes; Préstamo del FMI a Togo; Nuevos desafíos para Viet Nam; Notas breves