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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on government finance statistics (GFS) covers the remote TA to the Ministry of Finance (MOF) during September 21–October 2 and December 14–18, 2020 and March 9–13 and April 19–23, 2021 (which was extended to May 2021). These peripatetic activities were conducted remotely due to the travel restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 situation. This report documents the main achievements from these activities. These activities were part of the GFS and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) project funded by the Government of Japan (JSA3) and implemented by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) and the IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT).
Sebastian Horn and Mr. Futoshi Narita
Over the past two decades, many low-income developing countries have substantially increased openness towards external financing and have received large capital inflows. Using bank-level micro data, this paper finds that capital inflows have been associated with financial deepening through increases in bank loans, deposits, and wholesale funding. Domestic banks increase loans more than foreign banks. There are only modest signs of a build-up in financial vulnerabilities. Causality is examined through an instrumental variable approach and an augmented inverse-probability weighting estimator. These approaches indicate only limited evidence for global push effects, pointing towards the importance of domestic pull factors.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Successful containment of COVID-19 and strong policy support have helped contain the health and economic fallout, and a strong recovery is underway. Growth in 2020 reached 2.9 percent, among the highest in the world. However, labor market conditions remain weak. Corporate balance sheets have worsened, potentially hampering private investment and job prospects. Banks entered the crisis in a stronger position than in previous years, but weaknesses remain. Vietnam’s economy remains heavily reliant on external trade and is vulnerable to trade tensions.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The main purpose of the mission was to continue TA to assist with upgrading the compilation and dissemination of fiscal data and GFS in Vietnam in line with the international standard, the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014).
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam highlights that gradual fiscal consolidation, strict limits on government guarantees and robust growth in recent years have led to declining government debt, expected to continue under current policies. But while there is some fiscal space, fiscal needs are large, for infrastructure, social spending and to deal with population aging. The tightening of credit growth continued in 2018; however, liquidity remained ample, aided by the strong balance of payments and tight fiscal policies. The State Bank of Vietnam has initiated plans to modernize its monetary framework with IMF technical support. The authorities’ efforts to improve economic institutions and governance continue and the fight against grand corruption has resulted in significant sentences in recent high-profile cases. Improvements in transparency and statistical systems are underway, with support from the IMF and the Financial Action Task Force’s Asia Pacific Group.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during July 9–13, 2018 to assist the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) with the development of a residential property price index (RPPI). This was the first mission conducted to Vietnam under the auspices of the multi-annual STA Data for Decisions (D4D) trust fund. The main objective of TA provided to Vietnam under the D4D will be to assist the GSO to develop an RPPI. The GSO recently launched two initiatives to collect potential source data for the RPPI since taxation data are unreliable in respect of reported transaction prices, and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) does not collect loan level mortgage data.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2017 was a bumper year of broad-based and non-inflationary growth. Reforms continued, including in the banking sector, privatizations and cuts in red tape. The momentum is expected to continue, aided by reforms, higher potential output, and the global recovery. However, economic distortions and capacity constraints remain, as do external and domestic risks and longer-term challenges. The strong economy provides an opportunity for additional reforms to boost investment, ensure durable growth and resilient balance sheets, and reduce the external surplus.