International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
A 36-month EFF with access of SDR 3.035 billion (435 percent of quota or about US$4.204 billion) was approved on March 11, 2019. Economic activity is projected to decelerate further in 2019 as fiscal consolidation and a slowdown in credit growth weigh on economic growth. However, external financing conditions have improved on the back of rising oil prices and the approval of the IMF program, with sovereign bond spreads falling by 250 basis points since January 1, 2019.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that a drought that affected agricultural output slowed Haiti’s GDP growth to 2.7 percent in FY2014, but inflation remained in the mid-single digits. The overall fiscal deficit of the central government remained high, in part owing to one-off investment related to Hurricane Sandy. International reserves remained appropriate at about 5 months of imports. The implementation of structural reforms to support growth underpins the medium-term outlook, which is nonetheless subject to downside risks. GDP growth in FY2015 is expected to be between 2–3 percent, and to increase to 3–4 percent in the medium term.
The Nicaraguan economy continued to post robust growth in the first half of 2011. The Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Financing Assurances Review highlights that all quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2011 were met and the structural agenda is broadly on track. The fiscal performance of the central government was stronger than envisaged. The deficit in the external current account is projected to remain large and to be financed by resilient capital flows.
Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Romain Ranciere, and Mr. Olivier D Jeanne
This paper focuses on what countries can do on their own—that is, on the role of domestic policies—with respect to country insurance. Member countries are routinely faced with a range of shocks that can contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and, in extreme cases, to economic crises. The presence of such risks underlies a potential demand for mechanisms to soften the blow from adverse economic shocks. For all countries, the first line of defense against adverse shocks is the pursuit of sound policies. In light of the large costs experienced by emerging markets and developing countries as a result of past debt crises, fiscal policies should seek to improve sustainability, taking into account that sustainable debt levels seem to be lower in emerging and developing countries than in advanced countries. Although much can be accomplished by individual countries through sound policies, risk management, and self-insurance through reserves, collective insurance arrangements are likely to continue playing a key role in cushioning countries from the impact of shocks.
Mr. R. G Gelos, Mr. Alessandro Prati, and Oya Celasun
Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to targeted levels during many disinflation programs? This paper assesses the relative importance of these two factors during a number of disinflation attempts in developing and transition economies. Using survey data, we find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. We also find that an improvement in primary fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This suggests that during stabilization episodes, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility by strengthening public finances.
This paper explores the relationship between the constitutional entrenchment of central bank independence and inflation performance. Empirical studies for developing countries have not found a relationship between central bank independence, proxied by the "de jure" independence established in the central bank law, and inflation. We argue that the constitution is likely to be better enforced than ordinary statutes owing to its higher legal rank. Our empirical analysis finds that in a sample of Latin American and Caribbean countries, those countries that entrench the independence of the central bank in the constitution have a better inflation performance.
This paper reviews central banks’ legal reform in Latin America during the 1990s and discusses the status of central bank independence in the region. Based on this information, it builds a simplified index of central bank independence which, in addition to the commonly used criteria of political and economic independence, incorporates provisions of central banks’ financial autonomy, accountability, and lender-of-last-resort. The paper finds a moderate negative correlation between increased central bank independence and inflation during 1999–2001 in 14 Latin American countries. Dissagregating the index, the same analysis suggests that economic independence is the key component driving the observed negative correlation between legal central bank independence and inflation.
This paper analyzes problems of international money. The paper highlights that there are three chief economic evils—starvation and poverty in the Third World, unemployment in industrial countries, and price inflation in the industrial countries that has been so fast as to be socially unacceptable at home and to complicate immensely social and economic adjustment in much of the rest of the world. The paper examines structural change and financial innovation in the international monetary system since 1972. It also analyzes exchange rate management and surveillance since 1972.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This volume is the Seventh Issue of Selected Decisions of the IMF and Selected Documents. It contains the decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Directors and the Board of Governors of the IMF to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, the volume contains certain documents relating to the IMF and the United Nations. This issue contains most of the decisions that were published in earlier issues but not decisions that have ceased to be effective or that are referred to less frequently than in the past. A substantial part of this volume is devoted to decisions taken by the IMF since the last issue. With few exceptions, the decisions in this volume are general in application and relate to obligations, policies, or procedures under the Articles of Agreement. Subject to the few exceptions referred to, decisions that affect individual members are not included. Decisions of the Fund that are included in the By-Laws and the Rules and Regulations are general in application but are not reproduced in this volume.