International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the Eastern Caribbean Securities Regulatory Commission (ECSRC), a Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department mission conducted a review of a draft version of the new Investment Funds Regulations (IFR) and Securities Regulations (SR) form May 20–June 30, 2022. The two sets of regulations are a key part of the new regime to govern the capital markets in the member territories of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 volcanic eruptions. Despite the authorities’ strong efforts to contain deficits, critical fiscal responses to these shocks pushed up public debt, which—while assessed as sustainable—remains at high risk of distress should future shocks materialize. The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2022, supported by large-scale investment projects and recoveries in tourism and agriculture. Surging commodity prices, fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine, are expected to raise inflation sharply to 5.8 percent in 2022, adding to fiscal and external pressures and weighing on the recovery. So far, the financial system has weathered the shocks relatively well. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks primarily from an abrupt slowdown in trading partners’ growth, potential delays in investment projects including due to supply chain disruptions, and the ever-present threat of frequent natural disasters.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
With ECCU economies slowly emerging from the pandemic with scars, the impact of the war in Ukraine is a setback to the nascent recovery. Higher food and energy prices, amid ongoing supply disruptions and intra-regional transportation bottlenecks, are raising inflation, eroding income, lowering output growth, worsening fiscal and external positions, and threatening food and energy security. As a result, inflation is expected to hover over 5½ percent in 2022. Real GDP is projected to grow by 7½ percent in 2022, leaving output still well below the pre-pandemic level. Fiscal deficits are projected to remain sizable, given continued pandemic- and disaster-related spending and temporary support to address rising living costs, thereby keeping gross financing needs and public debt at elevated levels in the near term. The financial system has remained broadly stable so far, with adequate capital and liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans remain high and could rise further following the expiration of the ECCB’s loan moratoria program. The outlook is subject to large downside risks, primarily from further increases in commodity prices and new COVID variants amid vaccine hesitancy, in addition to the ever-present threat of natural disasters.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
An explosive volcanic eruption that began on April 9 is hitting St. Vincent and the Grenadines hard, creating an urgent balance of payments need and a humanitarian crisis as the country continues to deal with the fallout from the global pandemic. The economy is estimated to have contracted in 2020 by 3.8 percent as tourism activity fell 70 percent. Before the eruption, economic growth was expected to be flat in 2021, as the global pandemic continued, and tourism remained depressed. While there is considerable uncertainty about the evolution of the eruption, staff estimate the infrastructure damage to exceed 20 percent of GDP and for the economy to contract by 6.1 percent in 2021 with agriculture and related sectors severely affected.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.