Ms. Grace B Li, Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell, Mr. Christopher S Adam, Mr. Andrew Berg, and Mr. Peter J Montiel
VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of these countries? Using small DSGEs as data-generating processes, we assess the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid—a strong caveat, especially in LICs. However, many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that “insignificant” results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong.
Uganda’s National Development Plan (NDP) stipulates medium-term strategic direction, development priorities, and implementation strategies. It also details Uganda’s current development status, challenges, and opportunities. The contribution of this NDP to the socioeconomic transformation will be demonstrated by improved employment levels, higher per capita income, improved labor force distribution in line with sectoral GDP shares, substantially improved human development and gender equality indicators, and the country’s competitiveness position, among others. The impressive GDP growth performance has contributed to a significant reduction in poverty levels.
This report summarizes the Annual Progress Report of Uganda on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, which highlights the progress and outcomes of implementation of the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) policies and programs. It provides assessments on achievements and problematic areas in implementing the PEAP as well as recommendations on the corrective measures to meet Uganda's poverty reduction targets. It also reviews governance and security, and discusses ways to increase the ability of the poor to raise their income, and to improve the quality of life of the poor.
This volume, edited by Michel A. Dessart and Roland E. Ubogu, records the presentations made and discussions held during the Inaugural Seminar of the Joint Africa Institute (JAI). The JAI was established in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, by the African Development Bank, the IMF, and the World Bank to meet the pressing training needs of the African continent. The participants discussed four main topics: the changing role of the state, governance, and new capacity requirements; the challenge of achieving macroeconomic stability in Africa; the requirement for capacity building in Africa; and the role of international financial institutions in capacity building in Africa. The seminar was held in November 1999, but the topics and recommendations of the seminar remain current and of particular importance today. The seminar was held in English and French, and both language versions are contained in this volume. 240 pp. 2001
This paper presents four commentaries by an IMF Deputy Managing Director on integration and growth in a globalized world economy. Globalized and integrated financial markets are the norm, complete with their tremendous opportunities—the chance to quicken the pace of investment, job creation, and growth—and, some inevitable risks. The paper also highlights that sound macroeconomic policies must be a top priority, and that these policies must be supported by transparency and accountability. Policies at the country and global level must be mutually reinforcing; industrial countries meeting the more outward-oriented policies of developing countries with greater openness around the world. It is recommended that the IMF agenda must include adopting bold structural reforms and building a social consensus for reform through economic security, good governance, and a better dialogue with civil society in Africa. In the Berlin address, it is suggested that development rests on three pillars: good economic policy, a favorable legal and political environment, and attention to equitable social development.