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International Monetary Fund
The Work Program aims to help the membership tackle multiple and complex challenges—most prominently high inflation, along with elevated debt levels, energy and food security, and risks of fragmentation. In addition to discussing policy advice, financial assistance, and capacity development to provide critical support to the countries affected by these compounding crises, the Board will continue to monitor closely the economic and financial developments, new challenges and risks, and discuss policy responses. Work will also focus on implementing the strategies to support a more resilient, inclusive, digital, and green global economy.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The authorities’ policy response aided a robust recovery from the COVID-19 shock in 2021 with output growth above expectations reflecting pent-up demand and strong export performance. However, spillovers from the war in Ukraine are expected to dampen growth, raise inflation, and widen the current account deficit this year. The recovery in 2021 and scaling back of pandemic measures led to a decline in the fiscal deficit and government debt. Inflation is expected to remain higher for longer, reflecting elevated global food and commodity prices. The NBG has increased its policy rate by 3 percentage points since March 2021.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Over the last quarter of a century, Peru has become one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America. During this period, Peru built very strong policy and institutional frameworks and economic fundamentals while maintaining external, financial, and fiscal stability. The strength of the Peruvian economy was tested with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when the economy collapsed, leading to a significant deterioration of the fiscal accounts. Subsequently, the economy recovered strongly in 2021, and the fiscal position strengthened considerably, while inflationary pressures emerged (in line with global trends). However, Peru is bearing a very high humanitarian and economic cost from the COVID-19 pandemic, sizable under-employment, and a large increase in poverty. These challenges and recent social unrest related to high energy and food prices point to the need to accelerate structural reforms to foster high and inclusive growth. While political uncertainty has risen, with frequent cabinet reshufflings, the authorities remain committed to maintaining their very strong policy frameworks and prudent macroeconomic policies.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
While geopolitical tensions with Russia had already curtailed Ukraine’s access to markets, the escalation to an invasion of Ukraine by Russia and full-blown war on February 24 has dramatically altered Ukraine’s outlook. A deep recession and large reconstruction costs are to be expected, on the backdrop of a humanitarian crisis. With the war ongoing, the situation remains extremely fluid, and any forecast is at this stage subject to massive uncertainty. The authorities are rightly focusing on ensuring the continuity of critical government operations, preserving financial stability and protecting priority spending.