Asia and Pacific > Timor-Leste, Democratic Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt x
Clear All Modify Search
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Although Timor-Leste has made considerable progress in many areas since its independence in 2002, it faces significant medium-term challenges. The nation has pressing development needs, young institutions, and is highly dependent on oil. Oil revenues from active fields, which have been the main source of funding for government spending, are drying up. The non-oil private sector economy remains underdeveloped and lack of good jobs and high youth unemployment are serious concerns.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Timor-Leste remains a fragile post-conflict nation with weak human and institutional capacity and large infrastructure gaps. The main challenge facing Timor-Leste is to effectively manage its petroleum wealth to reduce public-sector dependence, diversify the non-oil economy, generate jobs for a young and rapidly-growing population, and raise living standards. Political uncertainty constrained public spending in 2017–18, resulting in a sharp contraction of non-oil GDP in 2017 and flat growth in 2018. The report discusses that risks to the outlook are closely tied to the success of fiscal and structural reforms to maintain macroeconomic stability, ensure long-run fiscal sustainability, and facilitate economic diversification. The consultation recommends that a fiscal strategy should be pursued to improve expenditure control and efficiency, mobilize domestic revenue, and commit to protecting the wealth of the Petroleum Fund. Ongoing efforts to strengthen public financial management and promote good governance are crucial to ensure public investment efficiency and enhance the quality of public services.
Ali Alichi, Mr. Ippei Shibata, and Kadir Tanyeri
Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses recent economic developments, economic outlook, and risks in Timor-Leste. Growth has moderated while inflation has fallen sharply. Owing to a sharp fall in oil revenues and large development needs, Timor-Leste is facing difficult policy challenges. According to industry estimates, unless new oil reserves are developed, oil production is expected to decline further and cease by 2023. Prioritization of government expenditures to facilitate high-return infrastructure investments is key in tandem with structural reforms that catalyze nonoil private sector growth. The 2016 budget outlined a significant scaling up of the public investment in 2017–19, which will strain fiscal sustainability.
International Monetary Fund
Timor-Leste has made substantial progress toward restoring stability and rebuilding the country after emerging from a long struggle for independence and internal conflicts between 1999 and 2006. The government has launched its Strategic Development Plan to step up development. A well-managed Petroleum Fund is in place, and new institutions have been established to manage large public investment programs. The authorities need to further strengthen institutional capacities and develop human resources. Developing the financial sector and strengthening the credit culture are crucial for sustained growth in the private sector.
International Monetary Fund
The Timorese economy has improved owing to high oil-financed public spending and a rebound in agriculture, non-oil growth. Despite high bank deposit growth, private sector credit has remained stagnant. The medium-term outlook for growth is positive. Timor-Leste’s key challenge remains to use its petroleum wealth wisely to build a strong non-oil economy and raise living standards. Improvements in financial management and budget execution will be important. Productivity-enhancing structural reforms and efforts to build labor skills would improve competitiveness in non-oil industries and services.
Miss Liliana B Schumacher and Mr. Jiro Honda
This paper discusses whether adopting the U.S. dollar as the sole legal tender could help Liberia, a postconflict economy, to boost growth and strengthen fiscal discipline. In view of the performance of exchange rate regimes in many countries and Liberia's own experience with dollarization, we conclude that Liberia should not adopt full dollarization for the following reasons: (i) the alleged benefits voiced by the proponents of dollarization, in terms of enhanced fiscal discipline and faster economic growth, are not supported by the empirical evidence; (ii) dollarization would increase the Liberian economy's vulnerability to external shocks and Liberia's social fragility; (iii) banks in fully dollarized economies face additional capitalization requirements that Liberian banks cannot meet at present; and (iv) dollarization would be costly in terms of real resources because of the loss of seigniorage.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
On July 17, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Anne Krueger addressed a National Bureau for Economic Research (NBER) conference on the lessons to be learned from the Argentina crisis and how these can be used to raise the effectiveness of IMF efforts to prevent and resolve financial crises. Following are edited excerpts from her remarks; the full text is available on the IMF’s website (www.imf.org).
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Informe Anual del Directorio Ejecutivo correspondiente al ejercicio cerrado el 30 de abril de 2000.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Rapport annuel du Conseil d'administration pour l’exercice clos le 30 avril 2000.