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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
With a strong recovery in train, the authorities are gradually withdrawing the policy stimulus released during the pandemic. Although debt is sustainable, there is a high risk of debt distress. At the same time, financing the Roghun dam project while implementing tax reform remains a key challenge. The financial sector has stabilized, but intermediation remains low. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside due to uncertainty on the pandemic and regional spillovers.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Growth has been strong and poverty has fallen in the past decade, though Tajikistan faces rising vulnerabilities. Growth is now softening and the external position has weakened dramatically as remittances have fallen with the sharp slowdown in Russia and earnings from cotton and aluminum exports have dropped due to global market developments. The exchange rate is under pressure and international reserves are thin. The fiscal position has been near balance in recent years and debt has been kept low, while fiscal space is becoming limited by rising debt service and contingent liabilities.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Tajikistan is the poorest of the eight Central Asian and Caucasus countries. Economic growth has been high and funded by inward remittances, but poverty remains significant. Macroeconomic policies were generally prudent before the external shocks (lower oil and commodity prices and weaker growth in trading partners) in 2015-16, but slow progress in structural reforms constrained diversification and employment generation. External shocks (through lower remittances and currency depreciation) and an inadequate policy response weakened the external position, exposed major weaknesses in the banking system, and contributed to a rise in public debt. Program discussions held in 2016 were not concluded. While the authorities launched a bank recapitalization plan in December 2016 to maintain depositor confidence and financial stability, additional banking sector reforms are needed.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Tajikistan successfully completed a 3-year ECF-supported program in May 2012 and needs to continue with ambitious reforms. While growth is robust, it is non-inclusive, leading to large-scale outmigration that makes Tajikistan the most remittance-dependent country in the world. The country remains the poorest of the eight in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and stands next to last among the seven with rankings in the ease of doing business. Reliance on commodity imports, a narrow export base, and low buffers leave the economy vulnerable. Weak macroeconomic policy frameworks restrict the authorities’ ability to dampen shocks. State-directed lending and investment displace market-financed activity and create fiscal risks. Presidential elections are scheduled for November.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Reported economic activity has been strong in 2018-19 and inflation has picked up. The monetary framework is being strengthened. The external position has deteriorated. The fiscal deficit has widened as revenues have declined. Reforms to place the loss-making energy sector on a sound financial footing are underway. The authorities’ development strategy relies on large infrastructure projects— Roghun dam and other large SOE-implemented projects — that need sizable external financing. The financial sector is recovering from the 2015-16 crisis, with a decline in nonperforming loans and improved profitability. The authorities are making efforts to strengthen bank supervision and regulation. However, two formerly-systemic banks remain insolvent and further reforms are needed to restore public confidence in banks.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Tajikistan’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a severe human and economic impact in Tajikistan. Trade and transportation disruptions have led to a sharp drop in remittances and government revenues and created urgent balance of payments and fiscal financing needs. The authorities have responded with an action plan and measures to contain the pandemic. Health spending and targeted support to the most vulnerable households and sectors in the economy are the immediate priorities, and a temporary widening of the budget deficit is appropriate. The IMF’s financial assistance under the RCF is expected to provide a sizable share of the financing needed to implement the anti-crisis measures. Additional concessional and grant financing from the international community will be critical to close the remaining financing gap. Based on authorities’ fiscal consolidation plans, debt is assessed to be sustainable. The authorities have committed to enhance the transparency and governance of their COVID-19 policy response through the publication of an ex-post audit of associated spending and procurement processes. The risk of debt distress remains high, but the capacity to repay the IMF is adequate.
International Monetary Fund
The safeguards policy was introduced in 2000 to reduce the risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of program monetary data to the Fund. It supports the Fund’s approach to prudent lending and complements other safeguards such as program design, conditionality, and access limits, to name a few. Some 242 assessments of 92 central banks have been completed since 2000. Assessments are followed by a period of monitoring for as long as Fund credit is outstanding.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
Tajikistan’s economic performance has been satisfactory, but challenges still remain. Executive Directors agreed that the challenge is to support recovery while addressing risks to macroeconomic stability. They emphasized for prudent monetary stance to avoid inflation and also to address vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Directors agreed that structural reforms should be given top priority. They welcomed progress in establishing a framework for agricultural financing. Directors commended plans to improve the business climate through a reform of the tax regime and improved transparency and accountability of state-owned enterprises.
International Monetary Fund
This Report of the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module provides an assessment of Tajikistan’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. The assessment reveals that Tajikistan already meets many of the GDDS recommendations for dissemination of macroeconomic statistics. The main exceptions are the coverage of national accounts, central government operations, and central government debt. All data categories meet or exceed the recommended periodicity and timeliness.