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Mr. Giovanni Ganelli and Nour Tawk
We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-à-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia’s GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our results suggest that the positive effect of QQE on expectations, by improving confidence, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of expectations and improved confidence, captured by increases in equity prices, rather than through balance sheet adjustments which might have been captured by movements in the monetary base.
International Monetary Fund
operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?
Ms. Renu Kohli
This paper documents trends in movement and composition of capital flows into India in a comparative perspective, examines the impact of these flows upon key macroeconomic variables in the economy, and dwells on implications for economic policy. We find that an inflow of foreign capital results in a real appreciation and has a significant impact on domestic money supply. During a capital surge, these effects have been countered through intervention and sterilization. The paper concludes with a discussion on the costs of these policies in the event of a heavy inflow of foreign capital into India.
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh and Ms. Gabriela Basurto
Sharp exchange rate depreciations in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) raised doubts about the efficacy of increasing interest rates to defend the currency. Using a standard monetary model of exchange rate determination, this paper shows that tighter monetary policy was in fact associated with an appreciation of the exchange rate. Moreover, there is little evidence of higher real interest rates contributing to a widening of the risk premium.
Mr. Miguel A Savastano and Mr. Michael Mussa
This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways. The paper discusses the three-pronged approach to stabilization at the core of all IMF-supported programs, stresses the iterative character of “financial programming,” and explains the rationale for setting quantitative performance criteria for fiscal and monetary policy in IMF-supported arrangements. A main theme is that IMF-supported programs contain a great deal of flexibility to respond both to differences in circumstances and to changes in conditions in individual cases.
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) during the 1990s. Economic reforms in Lao PDR that started in 1986 were supported by IMF arrangements in 1989–97. During those years, the economy grew annually at 5 percent to 8 percent and through prudent macroeconomic policies, the government managed to achieve broadly stable macroeconomic conditions. Meanwhile, structural reforms took shape, so that market processes are now at work in most segments of the economy. However, in 1997, economic conditions deteriorated and progress in structural reform slowed significantly.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Sri Lanka provides background information on economic developments and on selected policy issues facing Sri Lanka. The main economic developments in 1996 and the first quarter of 1997 are discussed. The paper highlights that in 1996, a severe drought, power shortages, and an escalation in the military conflict contributed to a sharp deterioration in the economic situation. With the end of the drought and power shortages, and a rise in investor confidence, macroeconomic conditions in 1997 were more favorable.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Lao People’s Democratic Republic during 1996. The paper notes that real GDP growth of nearly 7 percent was readied despite disappointing growth in the agricultural sector in the aftermath of the floods. It highlights that the significant reduction in inflation in 1996 was brought about despite significant hikes in food prices as a result of those floods. The paper also indicates how the 1995/96 budget contributed to the financial tightening needed after the 1995 surge in inflation.
Mr. Robert Dekle and Mahmood Pradhan
This paper examines the impact of financial market development and liberalization on money demand behavior in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand since the early 1980s. The empirical results indicate continuing instability in the interaction of money growth, economic activity, and inflation. Rapid growth and ongoing changes in financial markets suggest that policy needs to be guided by a wider set of monetary and real sector indicators of inflationary pressures. The feasibility of alternative policy frameworks--including nominal exchange rate targets, and inflation targets--is discussed in the context of the substantial and sustained increase in foreign capital inflows.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) during 1992–95. To highlight in more detail the factors that contributed to Lao PDRs macroeconomic performance during 1992–95, the paper analyzes the developments in macroeconomic variables and policy actions. It also notes that real GDP growth, averaging about 7 percent during 1992–95, was attributable to a rapid expansion of manufacturing, construction, and tourism, as well as strong growth in agriculture in 1992 and 1994.