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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on the risk assessment for Thailand discusses that the Thai banking system shows a substantial resilience to severe shocks. The solvency stress tests indicate that the largest banks can withstand an adverse scenario broadly as severe as the Asian financial crisis. While three banks would deplete their capital conservation buffer (CCB) under the adverse scenario, recapitalization needs would be minimal. A battery of complementary sensitivity stress tests, which allows to cover in more detail certain risk factors, also confirmed the overall picture of a resilient baking system: no particular vulnerability emerged from the analysis of the bond portfolio to an increase in government and corporate spreads, exposure to foreign exchange risk, and concentration risk in the loan portfolio, with the possible exception of one entity with a particular concentration on single-name exposures. The liquidity stress test on investment funds (IFs) showed that they would be able to withstand a severe redemption shock and its impact on the banks and the bond market would be limited.
International Monetary Fund
operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper provides a brief description of the IMF and its activities, focusing in particular on its technical assistance (TA) activities. The report then describes in greater detail the Japan Administered Account for Selected Fund Activities (JSA)—including its scope and objectives, the size and uses of the TA contribution, and assessments of its TA activities and scholarship programs—with a focus on fiscal year (FY) 2009. Japan has provided grant contributions to support IMF technical assistance to member countries since 1990. In 1997, the scope of the administered account was widened to allow for financing other IMF activities in Asia and the Pacific, carried out through the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific in Tokyo. Regular consultations are held between the IMF and the Japanese authorities; the most recent formal meeting took place in April 2009. The use of JSA resources is flexible. JSA funds can be used to cover the cost of short- and long-term TA experts and other costs associated with conducting seminars and workshops, such as room rental fees.

International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on a detailed assessment of observance of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) core principles for systemically important payment systems in Thailand. This assessment covers the Bank of Thailand Automated High-Value Transfer Network (BAHTNET), which is a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system. The assessment reveals that there is no explicit legislation for payment systems in Thailand. However, the legal basis for BAHTNET and payment transfers executed in this system is defined by a set of laws, regulations, and contractual arrangements.
International Monetary Fund
Technical Assistance Delivery by Long-Term Experts are an increasingly important vehicle for delivering TA in all financial sector areas. In recent years, the amount of MCM TA provided through LTEs has been about 28 staff years annually, or 36 percent of MCM’s total TA field delivery (including RTACs). This share has recently risen as a result of the steady increase in external financing and the cutback in MCM’s own resources for capacity building in the context of the recent downsizing. Indeed, the share of LTEs (who are mostly externally financed) in total planned MCM TA jumped to 41 percent in fiscal year 2009 (May-April). As these factors are expected to persist, the importance of LTEs as a means of delivering TA will likely increase further.
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
The paper finds that exchange rate flexibility in emerging market countries has increased over the past decade. This "learning to float" appears to have involved a strengthening of monetary and financial policy frameworks aimed at directly addressing the key vulnerabilities that give rise to the "fear of floating." The results in the paper suggest that the trend toward greater exchange rate flexibility, alongside a strengthening of banking supervision, has afforded emerging market countries more monetary policy independence.
International Monetary Fund
Loan review is a process routinely used by banks to assess the current value of loan portfolios. Provisioning is a technique to translate loan review results into the balance sheet. It allows for ongoing valuation of loans. Both are core elements of credit risk management and important to prudential oversight. As illustrated in this paper, valuation feeds into indicators of overall bank soundness and key macroprudential indicators. Country practices and recent moves to more forward-looking models are surveyed. Macroeconomic linkages are highlighted, including tax treatment of provisions, variables of the monetary survey, and procyclical aspects of loan valuation systems.
Mr. Christian B. Mulder and Brieuc Monfort
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed linking capital requirements for bank loans to ratings by commercial credit rating agencies. Estimates for 20 emerging market economies show that sovereign ratings react procyclically to crisis indicators. Ratings deteriorate if the real effective exchange rate depreciates, in contrast with the positive effect on overall debt service capacity depreciations are normally supposed to have. Simulations show that linking capital requirements to ratings would have drastically increased these requirements during the crisis periods after decreasing them in the run up to the crises. Simulations suggest modest efficiency gains of using sovereign credit ratings for capital requirements on emerging market lending.
Mr. Luca Errico and Mr. Alberto Musalem Borrero
The paper takes a closer look at offshore banking—a pervasive practice that has played a role in recent crises. Offshore banking is an increasingly attractive alternative to the sometimes heavily regulated financial markets of emerging economies. From a microeconomic vantage point, offshore banks seem to exploit the risk-return tradeoff by being more profitable than onshore banks, and in many instances also more leveraged. Risks stemming from offshore activities may be easily transmitted onshore with systemic consequences. Current prudential and supervisory frameworks are broadly adequate for risk management if effectively and universally implemented.