Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Allan Dizioli, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, Rui Mano, and Mr. Mehdi Raissi
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Mr. Stephen Tokarick
This paper examines the question: Who bears the larger portion of the excess burden of a tariff-the country that imposes it, or a country that it trades with? For a country that can influence its terms of trade, there are two ways of approaching this question. This paper shows that under certain assumptions, the extra burden from a marginal change in the homecountry tariff is shared equally between the home and foreign country at a tariff rate equal to twice the optimal tariff for the home country. Also, the cumulative welfare effect of a tariff in the home country, relative to free trade, turns out to be equalized across countries when the home tariff equals four times its optimal tariff. The paper provides an application of these results and points policymakers to the types of data that are relevant if they want to negotiate over "burden sharing."
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
This report provides the IMF's projections and estimates on Thailand's expenditure on gross domestic product at current prices; balance of payments during 1995–2000; gross domestic product by industrial origin at current and constant prices during 1995–99; investment and savings at constant prices; gross domestic product at 1988 prices; selected energy prices; mining and agricultural productions during 1995–2001; central government fiscal accounts and revenue and grants; central government expenditure by economic classification,1995/96–1999/2000; summary of the central and local government tax system; financial and monetary surveys during 1996–2001, and so on.
International Monetary Fund
This Statistical Appendix report on Thailand highlights the economic indicators for the period 1994–99. The report discusses gross domestic product; investment and savings; agricultural production; manufacturing production; construction and property market; population, labor force, and employment by major economic sectors; average earnings by manufacturing categories; consumer and wholesale prices; government fiscal and expenditure accounts; summary of local government operations; summary of tax system; assets and liabilities of commercial banks; stock market indicators; balance of payments; export performance; and so on.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
Contents include--The real economy: background and recent developments; public finance; fiscal developments during 1994-95 and budgetary policy in 1996; Money and banking; structure of the banking system;monetary policy instruments; monetary developments; and issues in banking supervision; the external sector; recent developments; external financial assistance; external debt; trade regimel; customs operations; and exchange system;the changing role of the state; enterprise reform; privatization; and foreign direct investment; forestry sector and forestry policy;trends and developments; recent concession policy; and a sustainable new forestry policy; statistical tables.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Dominique Yves Dupont and Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon
This paper examines the relations between fluctuations in real exchange rates among the major currencies and fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic study of those effects has been performed on a wide range of commodities, although Sjaastad and Scacciavillani (1993) have done so for gold. We build on their approach and construct a supply and demand multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories and “static” and “rational” expectations. We estimate the model using several econometric methods on monthly data from January 1972 to January 1992 for 65 commodity prices. The paper finds that, for a small group of commodities, the dollar-denominated price is significantly influenced by the deutsche mark and the yen. The empirical results show that geographical proximity matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and beyond the size of the share of those commodities in world trade.
International Monetary Fund
This Background Paper and Statistical Annex examines selected issues pertaining to the Mauritian economy, which are all related to the question of how Mauritius will be able in the future to sustain its export-led development and diversify its economy. The paper discusses the impact of the Uruguay Round agreement on the Mauritian economy. The paper also utilizes available data to assess Mauritius’s external competitiveness, which is a major issue as regards the sustainability of high export growth.