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Mr. Andrew Berg and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Mr. Andrew Berg and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Mr. Andrew Berg and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Mr. Andrew Berg and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

La integración de los mercados financieros de todo el mundo durante la última década ha planteado nuevos retos para las autoridades. La velocidad con que el dinero puede convertirse de una moneda a otra y trasladarse de un país a otro se ha acelerado al mejorar la eficiencia de las comunicaciones globales, lo cual reduce considerablemente el tiempo de que disponen las autoridades para responder a las crisis en ciernes. Este folleto pasa revista a los intentos de los economistas por predecir las crisis mediante el desarrollo de sistemas de alerta temprana a fin de transmitir señales cuando se estén gestando problemas en los mercados de divisas y en los sistemas bancarios.

Mr. Andrew Berg and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

L'intégration des marchés financiers mondiaux au cours de la décennie passée confronte les responsables publics à des difficultés nouvelles. La vitesse à laquelle l'argent peut se déplacer d'un pays à l'autre et d'une monnaie à l'autre a progressé avec l'efficacité des communications mondiales, raccourcissant considérablement les délais dont disposent les responsables publics pour réagir à l'apparition d'une crise. Cette brochure examine les tentatives des économistes pour prédire les crises en élaborant des systèmes d'alerte précoce pour détecter des difficultés en gestation sur les marchés monétaires et dans les systèmes bancaires.

Mr. Andrew Berg and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Developing countries fortunate enough to experience capital inflows haveseen rising levels of investment and enhanced economic growth. Capitalinflows have a negative side, however, in that they tend to appreciatethe domestic currency, making exports less competitive, and to encourageinflation. One defense against these destabilizing effects is to sterilize capital inflows by reducing the domestic component of themonetary base through the various initiatives explained in thispamphlet.