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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores non-oil growth impediments in Chad to better understand why the Chadian economy has not sufficiently rebounded from the crisis. It discusses how the economy is held back by crisis legacies such as high public debt and a fragile banking sector and how Chad continues to face long standing structural weaknesses which hamper potential growth. Three years of recession in Chad have left important legacies that continue to affect fiscal policy and performance in the non-oil private sector and the banking sector. Public domestic debt more than doubled with the crisis. As the Chadian economy was hit by the oil shock, while dramatically cutting spending, the government had to rely on large domestic financing to cushion the impact of the shock. Although the government started paying arrears, the remaining stock is very large and presents a drag on the non-oil economy. The paper ends with a discussion of how Chad’s economic potential will require reforms to address those weaknesses to foster economic diversification.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores non-oil growth impediments in Chad to better understand why the Chadian economy has not sufficiently rebounded from the crisis. It discusses how the economy is held back by crisis legacies such as high public debt and a fragile banking sector and how Chad continues to face long standing structural weaknesses which hamper potential growth. Three years of recession in Chad have left important legacies that continue to affect fiscal policy and performance in the non-oil private sector and the banking sector. Public domestic debt more than doubled with the crisis. As the Chadian economy was hit by the oil shock, while dramatically cutting spending, the government had to rely on large domestic financing to cushion the impact of the shock. Although the government started paying arrears, the remaining stock is very large and presents a drag on the non-oil economy. The paper ends with a discussion of how Chad’s economic potential will require reforms to address those weaknesses to foster economic diversification.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper looks at some Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) specific regional dimensions of a possible strategy to enhance governance, which would support specific reforms in this area at the country level. The paper describes the specific dimensions of governance covered in the note. The paper also analyzes governance and corruption in the areas of public financial management, anti-money laundering, and the link between the oil sector and public resources. The CEMAC regional institutions will have to play a central role to lead progress in these areas, and support member countries’ own efforts. Due to such actions result in giving a coherent framework to actions conducted at the country level, the synergic dimension can spur a virtuous circle, key to earn the benefit of an economic and monetary union. The success of the regional strategy that CEMAC member countries and regional institutions are implementing to exit the severe crisis they are facing depends critically on creating the conditions for laying the ground for a diversified economy, within a well-functioning regional market and an environment that provides opportunities for all and where public resources are geared to most productive use.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic outcomes in Chad continue to underperform, owing to the major impact of two exogenous shocks: lower oil prices and higher regional insecurity. Oil revenues have collapsed to a fraction of their previous level and are expected to recover only partially and gradually. Economic activity slowed sharply in 2015, with GDP growth estimated to have decelerated to 1.8 percent from 6.9 percent in 2014. The short- and medium-term outlooks remain challenging. Including a contraction of 1.1 percent in 2016, GDP growth is projected to average about 2 percent a year during 2016–18, compared with almost 5 percent during 2013–15.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper provides detailed assessment of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community's (CEMAC’s) financial system. Over the past decade, primarily as a result of high oil prices, CEMAC achieved robust economic growth, although lower than the SSA average, but insufficient to significantly reduce poverty. A poor business climate and weak governance are hampering financial sector development and its contribution to financing investments. The weakness of regional integration also limits the growth potential. The drop in oil prices by about 60 percent between June 2014 and January 2015 has had a large impact on CEMAC countries’ macroeconomic performance.