Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, Walter Zarate, Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos, and Mr. Ulrich H Klueh
This paper attempts to offer specific inputs to the debate on local content promotion in the oil industry, using the specific case of São Tomé and Príncipe as point of reference. Our approach emphasizes inter-sectoral linkages and institutional pre-conditions for local content promotion. Based on an Input-Output description of the economy, we quantify the consistency between the prospective oil sector development and the growth of other sectors of the economy. We also assess a number of sectoral policies and "niche" activities within the oil industry that would maximize the local benefits from oil exploration.
This paper examines the consideration of the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe’s debt relief at the completion point under the enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Debt Relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. Lower-than-projected export receipts largely owing to drought conditions and lower-than-expected tourism receipts, changes in cross-currency exchange rates, and variations in discount rates have been all unambiguously exogenous and outside the control of the authorities. There is need for continued fiscal prudence, policies to support broad-based growth and export diversification, continued donor support, and prudent debt management.
São Tomé and Príncipe pursued economic reforms and tried to reduce poverty amidst macroeconomic imbalances under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) program. Executive Directors supported the authorities’ decision to sustain the process of fiscal consolidation, and stressed the need for implementing a good budget and public expenditure management system. They commended the monetary and financial stances and the central bank’s international reserve position; welcomed the authorities' commitment to improve coverage, timeliness, and periodicity of basic macroeconomic statistics; and emphasized to accelerate structural reforms and achieve full transparency in oil revenue management.
This paper documents the protracted process of shaping the rules governing oil operations in São Tomé and Príncipe. It analyzes the institutional framework for oil sector development, which applies Milton Friedman's permanent income hypothesis to the management of oil resources. São Tomé and Príncipe is the first country in Africa to adopt this rule. Finally, the paper offers a preliminary quantitative analysis of the impact of oil sector development on government consumption and savings. It shows that the country's oil wealth could be significant, which would enable sustainable government consumption and intergenerational equity through a gradual buildup of the Permanent Fund for Future Generations.
This paper reviews the request from the São Tomé and Príncipe authorities for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). In 2004, the economy continued to grow at a moderate pace, but inflation increased to 15 percent by year-end, as bank credit to the private sector rose sharply and the government loosened fiscal policy. The proposed program for 2005–07 aims at correcting macroeconomic imbalances and sets the conditions for sustained strong growth. Real GDP growth is envisaged to slow down in 2005 in response to tight financial policies.
Sao Tome and Principe stands at the threshold of the oil era. The government’s objective of stabilizing the non-oil primary fiscal deficit over the medium term is appropriate. Executive Directors support the government’s approach to monetary policy, which is consistent with the flexible exchange regime and focuses on limiting inflation and enhancing credit access for entrepreneurs. Sao Tome and Principe's flexible exchange rate regime remains appropriate. Sao Tome and Principe's statistical framework suffers from serious weaknesses, and institutional capacity needs to be enhanced.
This paper assesses the 2001 Article IV Consultation and Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Sao Tome and Principe. Fiscal slippages, delays in structural reforms, and governance problems during the fourth quarter of 2000 and the first three quarters of 2001 led to the program going off track. The key quantitative performance criterion on the primary budget balance and the quantitative benchmark on government spending were not observed at either end-December 2000 or end-June 2001. The SMP is intended to correct the slippages incurred in 2001 and reestablish a track record of policy implementation.