Using a panel of 101 low- and middle-income countries with data covering the period 1980-2012, this paper applies various econometric approaches that deal with endogeneity issues to assess the impact of food price shocks on socio-political instability once fiscal policy and remittances have been accounted for. It focuses on import prices to reflect the vulnerability of importer countries / net-buyer households to food price shocks. The paper finds that import food price shocks strongly increase the likelihood of socio-political instability. This effect is greater in countries with lower levels of private credit and income per capita. On the other hand, while remittances seem to dampen the adverse effect of import food price shocks on socio-political instability in almost all countries, the mitigating role of fiscal policy is significant only in countries with low-levels of private credit.
Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 5½ percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.
La croissance reste vigoureuse dans la région en 2012, la plupart des pays connaissant une hausse de leur PIB (à l'exclusion du Nigéria et de l'Afrique du Sud). Les projections indiquent une accélération modeste mais généralisée de la croissance, qui devrait s'établir à 5,5 % en 2013 2014, en raison d'un renforcement progressif de l'économie mondiale et d'une demande intérieure robuste. L'investissement dans les secteurs axés sur les exportations demeure un moteur important de l'économie, et le rebond de la production agricole dans les régions touchées par la sécheresse contribuera également à la croissance. Les incertitudes qui pèsent sur l'économie mondiale constituent le principal risque pour les perspectives de la région, mais les éventuels chocs négatifs n'auraient probablement qu'un impact mesuré sur les résultats globaux de la région.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This selected issues paper on Sudan was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 7, 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Sudan or the Executive Board of the IMF.
In March 2009, the Fund established a new Framework Administered Account to administer external financial resources for Selected Fund Activities (the “SFA Instrument”). The financing of activities under the terms of the SFA Instrument is implemented through the establishment and operation of a subaccount within the SFA. This paper requests Executive Board approval to establish the Republic of South Sudan Macroeconomic Capacity Building Subaccount (the “Subaccount”) under the terms of the SFA Instrument.
Economic growth is estimated to have moderated further in 2010 to about 5 percent, reflecting slower growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors. The overall commitment fiscal deficit for 2010 is now estimated at 2.7 percent of GDP, about 0.6 percentage point of GDP below the program target. Monetary policy was expansionary in the first half of 2010, but was subsequently tightened. The current account deficit narrowed during the first three quarters of 2010 largely driven by an increase in oil exports.