Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper discusses that Somalia has made noteworthy progress since 2012 to recover from decades of conflict and state fragmentation. The country has succeeded in rebuilding core state capabilities and organized two democratic national elections in 2012 and 2017. Somalia has now reached the stage where it seeks to fully reengage the international community and is requesting debt relief through the heavily indebted poor countries initiative. The authorities developed the Ninth National Development Plan (NPD9) through a highly consultative, participatory process that ensured full country ownership. The macroeconomic policy objectives of NDP9 are to promote economic growth in an environment of low inflation, sustainable fiscal and current account balances, and healthy foreign exchange reserves. The IMF staff recommends updating framework to incorporate greater support for poverty reduction and additional financing from development partners during the interim period. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ commitment to issuing new Somali shilling banknotes, while maintaining de facto dollarization.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes impact of debt on growth in South Africa. A permanent increase of four percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP) in national government expenditure underlies the doubling of public debt in the last decade. The wage bill accounted for most of the expenditure increase (64 percent), followed by the interest bill (23 percent). The debt expansion, thus, financed a countercyclical fiscal policy centered on current spending, which likely shielded the impact of subdued economic activity, but had limited permanent effects on growth. Had resources devoted to wage increases and debt service payments been invested in more productive outlays, such as highly productive capital expenditure and reforms in key network industries, the growth gains would have been higher. The spending increase that drove the large debt accumulation helped smooth the impact of the global financial crisis, but likely did not have a material impact on growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the effectiveness of Panama's fiscal framework. The fiscal framework of Panama has played an important role in enhancing fiscal discipline since its establishment in 2009. Since the current fiscal framework went into effect in 2009, the primary balance and debt-to-GDP ratio of the nonfinancial public sector have improved significantly on average compared with those in 2000–08. The fiscal impulse given the output gap also shows that fiscal policy was less procyclical in 2009–15 than in 2001–08. However, there are options to better align the framework with best practice, including reducing unintended procyclicality, increasing transparency, and improving accountability.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note discusses the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe. The PRSP-II is the successor to the government’s previous development strategy, the PRSP-I, and furthers the country’s commitment to promoting sustainable poverty reduction through broad-based growth. Overall, the PRSP-II presents a coherent analysis and offers an appropriate policy framework for long-term poverty reduction and sustainable economic growth. The PRSP-II builds on the experience in a number of areas, promoting economic diversification and laying out a set of ambitious but attainable development goals. IMF Staff recommends further work on several critical areas in which the PRSP-II could be strengthened.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note focuses on Republic Of Moldova’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and National Development Strategy (NDS). The NDS unifies in one document the government’s poverty reduction strategy and development vision. The NDS argues that Moldova needs to add productivity-enhancing investment and exports as growth drivers to its traditional consumption-based growth model. The strong pace of growth observed in the mid-2000s was driven by domestic consumption fuelled by remittances. The NDS calls for a shift from the current consumption-based growth model toward one based on raising investments, increasing productivity and competitiveness, developing export industries, and promoting a knowledge-based society.
International Monetary Fund
Peru’s fiscal framework embedded in the Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law (FRTL) has proved to be effective in reducing debt. The FRTL embodies some countercyclical elements in response to output or commodity price shocks. The combination of a provision for a moderate deficit on the downside, and a current expenditure cap on the upside, allows for some countercyclical policy. It still has pockets of procyclicality in the face of large shocks to output or commodity prices.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, the ex post assessment (EPA) of longer program engagement with Mauritania is discussed. From this program, macroeconomic stability has been achieved. EPAs are intended to provide an opportunity to step back from continuing program relations to consider an analysis of the economic problems facing the country, review progress under IMF-supported programs, and draw forward-looking lessons for future IMF engagement. The newly designed poverty reduction strategy and ECF-supported program addresses the challenges identified by the EPA.