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International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the long-run economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom under two distinct assumptions for the post-Brexit relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. These illustrative scenarios entail different degrees of higher trade costs, a more restricted European Union migration regime and reduced foreign inward investment. A standard multicountry and multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to quantify the impact of higher trade barriers. There is substantial sectoral heterogeneity in the impact, and regions with higher concentrations of the more affected sectors are likely to confront greater losses. The empirical analysis suggests the speed of sectoral labor relocation across sectors has been relatively low in the UK. Irrespective of these empirical estimates, policies, such as retraining, would be critical to facilitate faster adjustment of the economy to the post-Brexit equilibrium thereby helping to minimize the associated costs to individuals and in aggregate.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes household balance sheet structure in Denmark and sensitivity to rising rates. Households in Denmark have gotten considerably wealthier in recent decades. High household assets, in particular in the mandatory pension system and housing, provide stability by funding future consumption and protecting against shocks. The high, but mostly illiquid, assets have a counterpart, however, in the high household debt, as households often need to borrow to consume or buy property. The resulting combination of large assets and liabilities on household balance sheets make the Danish economy sensitive to interest-rate changes. Sudden increases in interest rates can create macroeconomic instability via their impact on the debt service of households and knock-on effects on consumption.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the fiscal impact of demographic changes in Portugal and the euro area over the period 2015–2100. Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal is among the countries in the euro area that is expected to be most hurt by demographic developments. During 2015–2100, its population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent while the old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double, driven mostly by low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows. Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50, and the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies.