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Mr. Emre Alper, Ms. Wenjie Chen, Mr. Jemma Dridi, Mr. Herve Joly, and Mr. Fan Yang
This paper assesses the extent of economic and financial integration among the East African Community (EAC) along a number of dimensions and, where possible, whether integration has increased in the wake of the major regional integration policy milestones.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Selon l'édition 2016 des Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, la croissance mondiale devrait ralentir à 3,1 % en 2016 avant de remonter à 3,4 % en 2017. Ces prévisions, revues à la baisse de 0,1 point de pourcentage pour 2016 et 2017 par rapport à l'édition d'avril, reflètent des perspectives plus moroses pour les pays avancés à la suite du vote, en juin dernier, en faveur de la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l'Union européenne (Brexit), et en raison d'une croissance inférieure aux attentes aux États-Unis. Cette évolution exerce une pression à la baisse sur les taux d'intérêts mondiaux car la politique monétaire devrait rester accommodante sur une plus longue durée. En dépit d'une réaction des marchés plutôt rassurante à l'annonce du Brexit, l'impact final est très imprévisible car la forme que prendront les dispositions institutionnelles et commerciales entre le Royaume-Uni et l'Union européenne est incertaine. L'attitude des marchés financiers par rapport aux pays émergents s'est améliorée grâce aux baisses de taux d'intérêt attendues dans les pays avancés, à la diminution des inquiétudes suscitées par les perspectives à court terme de la Chine, qui a désormais pris des mesures favorables à la croissance, ainsi qu'à une certaine stabilisation des prix des produits de base. Mais les perspectives varient considérablement entre les pays et les régions : les pays émergents d'Asie, en particulier l'Inde, présentent une croissance robuste, tandis que les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne connaissent un net ralentissement. Dans les pays avancés, la morosité des perspectives, soumises à une incertitude considérable et à des risques à la baisse, pourrait alimenter encore la grogne politique et faire gagner du terrain aux mouvements anti-intégrationnistes. Plusieurs pays émergents ou en développement doivent encore relever des défis immenses pour s'ajuster à la baisse des prix des produits de base. Au vu de ces perspectives préoccupantes, il est plus urgent que jamais d'adopter largement des politiques publiques propices à la croissance et de gérer les vulnérabilités.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En la edición de octubre de 2016 de Perspectivas de la economía mundial (informe WEO) se proyecta que el crecimiento mundial disminuirá a 3,1% en 2016 y que repuntará a 3,4% en 2017. El pronóstico, que representa una revisión a la baja de 0,1 puntos porcentuales para 2016 y 2017 frente a las estimaciones de abril, refleja una moderación de las perspectivas de las economías avanzadas tras la votación de junio en la que el Reino Unido decidió abandonar la Unión Europea —un hecho al que comúnmente se hace referencia con el término “brexit”— y un crecimiento más débil de lo previsto en Estados Unidos. Estos factores han agudizado la presión a la baja sobre las tasas de interés mundiales, y en este momento se prevé que la política monetaria mantenga una orientación acomodaticia durante más tiempo. Aunque tranquiliza observar que la reacción de los mercados ante el shock del brexit fue ordenada, el impacto que en última instancia este tendrá no está nada claro, ya que el destino de los acuerdos institucionales y comerciales entre el Reino Unido y la Unión Europea es incierto. El sentimiento de los mercados financieros con respecto a las economías de mercados emergentes ha mejorado debido a las expectativas de una disminución de las tasas de interés en las economías avanzadas; la inquietud en torno a las perspectivas de China a corto plazo se ha aliviado, gracias a la adopción de políticas que están apuntalando el crecimiento; y los precios de las materias primas en cierta medida se han afianzado. Ahora bien, las perspectivas difieren drásticamente según el país y la región: las economías emergentes de Asia en general, e India en particular, registran un crecimiento vigoroso, en tanto que África subsahariana está sufriendo una fuerte desaceleración. En las economías avanzadas, el hecho de que las perspectivas sean de por sí moderadas y estén rodeadas de una considerable incertidumbre y de riesgos a la baja puede hacer que recrudezca el descontento político y que las plataformas de políticas contrarias a la integración logren afianzarse en mayor medida. Obligadas a adaptarse a la caída de precios de las materias primas, varias economías emergentes y en desarrollo siguen enfrentadas a enormes retos en términos de política económica. Estas preocupantes perspectivas hacen que sea más urgente que nunca aplicar una política de respuesta amplia que logre estimular el crecimiento y manejar las vulnerabilidades.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

International Monetary Fund
Spain has experienced income convergence consistently in the past decade, despite gradual losses in competitiveness. The empirical evidence indicates that overall EU enlargement offers a range of opportunities for Spain, points to potential pressures in specific sectors, and offers challenges, and tackling the challenges requires a flexible economy. The pattern of Spanish exports is dominated by its off-center location in the Southern part of the EU. Geographical location also plays a central role in determining the origin of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Spain.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper presents an empirical comparison of New Zealand’s growth performance with that of Australia during the post-reform period. The paper shows that most of the divergence in income per capita between the two countries has been the result of lower accumulation of capital per hour worked, and to a lesser extent, lower efficiency in utilizing resources in New Zealand. The paper also examines how migration has affected the income and welfare of New Zealand nationals.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Israel during 1990–94. During the first half of 1993, there was a significant slowing of the domestic economy largely as a result of a substantial scaling down of the public support provided to housing construction for immigrants, who were arriving to Israel in lesser numbers than originally estimated. In response to this slowing and to signs of a moderation in inflation, during the third quarter of 1993, the Bank of Israel reduced its lending rate from 12 percent to 9 percent in successive stages.