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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of environment and climate change on Vietnam’s economic growth. Vietnam’s economy and population are expected to be increasingly affected by climate change. In addition, the country’s growth model—which permitted quick reduction of poverty—has been unsustainably relying on mining and natural resources. The level of air, land and water pollution has also increased in the country. Well aware of the critical challenges faced by the country, the government has undertaken numerous initiatives and programs to adapt the economy to climate change risks and transform the growth model to support an environmental-friendly economy, but significant challenges remain.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on West African Economic and Monetary Union presents external stability assessment report. The current account deficit declined in 2014. Although gross international reserve coverage has increased slightly, part of the current account deficit has been financed by a decline in commercial banks’ net foreign assets. Contingent on the implementation of government’s consolidation plans, and helped by a favorable oil price outlook, the current account deficit would further gradually decline and be matched by enough financial inflows in the medium term. According to various metrics, the real exchange rate appears to be broadly aligned with fundamentals. International reserve coverage should increase to provide stronger buffers against immediate short-term risks. Structural competitiveness and investment efficiency improvements will be essential to ensure that the planned large investment programs translate into growth and export gains as well as increased private inflows into the region.
Rahul Anand, Mr. Kevin C Cheng, Sidra Rehman, and Ms. Longmei Zhang
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
Ms. Camelia Minoiu and Sanjay Reddy
We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte Carlo simulations and household surveys, we find that the technique gives rise to biases in poverty estimates, the sign and magnitude of which vary with the bandwidth, the kernel, the number of datapoints, and across poverty lines. Depending on the chosen bandwidth, the $1/day poverty rate in 2000 varies by a factor of 1.8, while the $2/day headcount in 2000 varies by 287 million people. Our findings challenge the validity and robustness of poverty estimates derived through kernel density estimation on grouped data.
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam has recorded continued strong economic performance since the conclusion of the last Article IV Consultation. GDP growth rose to 8.2 percent in 2006, with non-oil exports remaining an important engine of growth. Private investment has also expanded briskly. The near-term outlook remains broadly favorable, and Vietnam has good prospects for sustained growth and poverty reduction over the medium term, provided that the government can take timely action to rein in demand pressures.
International Monetary Fund
Overall, macroeconomic performance has remained strong since the conclusion of the last Article IV Consultation. The authorities have introduced market-opening legislation in line with WTO requirements, but state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms remained uneven. The short-term outlook is broadly positive, but medium-term prospects are subject to risks. IMF staff supports the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV’s) plan to establish a more flexible exchange rate regime. The balance of payments has remained in surplus.
International Monetary Fund
This paper on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) on the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) explains macroeconomic, structural, and social policies in support of growth and poverty reduction, as well as associated external financing needs and major sources of financing. The Lao PDR’s long-term national development goal is to be achieved through sustained equitable economic growth and social development, while safeguarding the country’s social, cultural, economic, and political identity. The government’s sustained effort to eradicate poverty will become a mass mobilization exercise, empowering local communities and providing a coherent framework for mutually supportive actions by all stakeholders.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the Joint Staff Assessment on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper of Vietnam. It analyzes the progress in achieving the Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS) goals and identifies the challenges. It assesses the macroeconomic performance, structural and social change, progress in reducing poverty, the Vietnam Development Goals, targets of the CPRGS, and the monitoring and evaluation systems. The staff recognizes the country’s efforts toward the implementation of the CPRGS, and agree that it provides a credible framework for World Bank and IMF concessional assistance.
Mr. Steven A. Symansky and Mr. Peter S. Heller
Significant aging is projected for many high-saving emerging economies of East and Southeast Asia. By 2025, the share of the elderly in their populations will at least double in most of these countries. The share of the young will fall. Aging populations could adversely affect saving rates in these economies, particularly after 2025. For the world, one may observe that, initially, the Asian Tigers could become increasingly important for world savings, reflecting their increased weight in the world economy, their high saving and growth rates, and the aging of the industrial countries. After 2025, the aging of the Tigers may reinforce the tendency toward a declining world saving rate.