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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The war in Ukraine is disrupting the post-pandemic recovery and exacerbating difficult policy trade-offs. This adds to a series of challenges facing the country, including the pandemic, the Ecowas sanctions against Mali, regional instability, and rising social demands. As a result, growth was revised down to 5 percent and inflation up to 5.5 percent in 2022. Medium-term prospects remain favorable with oil and gas production expected to start in 2023.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted a decade of high growth and development progress in Senegal. While a recession was avoided in 2020, the pandemic caused severe hardship and most households experienced income and job losses. A dynamic recovery is underway since mid-2020, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. However, higher fiscal deficits and lower growth have resulted in a rapid increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio and fiscal space is narrowing. COVID-19 case numbers remain comparatively low and about 14 percent of the adult population is vaccinated. Recent pandemic waves had little impact on economic activity in the absence of new lockdowns or movement restrictions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted a decade of high growth and development progress in Senegal. While a recession was avoided in 2020, the pandemic caused severe hardship and most households experienced income and job losses. A dynamic recovery is underway since mid-2020, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. However, higher fiscal deficits and lower growth have resulted in a rapid increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio and fiscal space is narrowing. COVID-19 case numbers remain comparatively low and about 14 percent of the adult population is vaccinated. Recent pandemic waves had little impact on economic activity in the absence of new lockdowns or movement restrictions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The macroeconomic outlook has worsened amid a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, higher commodity prices and social unrest, rooted in widening inequality and a lack of opportunities for the youth. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign was launched in February but has so far covered less than 5 percent of Senegal’s population. The President announced in early April an emergency program for youth employment and economic insertion amounting to 3 percent of GDP, spread evenly over 2021–23.
Mr. Bernardin Akitoby, Mr. Jiro Honda, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Keyra Primus, and Mouhamadou Sy
How can Low-Income Countries (LICs) enhance tax revenue collection to finance their vast development needs? We address this question by analyzing seven tax reform experiences in LICs (Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Maldives, Mauritania, Rwanda, Senegal, and Uganda). Three lessons stand out, although reforms must be tailored to individual circumstances: (i) Tax reforms require first and foremost political commitment and buy-in from key stakeholders; (ii) Countries that pursue both revenue administration and tax policy reforms tend to see much larger and persistent gains; and (iii) A successful strategy often starts with fiscal reform measures with immediate effect to build momentum. These can include: simplifying the tax system; curbing exemptions; reforming indirect taxes on goods and services (e.g., excises); and better managing compliance risks through strengthening taxpayer segmentation (often beginning with strengthening the Large Taxpayers Office). A comprehensive reform strategy (e.g., a medium-term revenue strategy) can help to properly sequence reform measures and facilitate their implementation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the macroeconomic impact of these discoveries and discusses potential fiscal frameworks for managing related revenues. Pre-production investment (2019–2021) will lead to an increase in the current account deficit; however, this will be followed by a boost to exports as hydrocarbon production comes online (2022 onward). Discoveries are important but will not lead to a major transformation of the economy, with hydrocarbons expected to make up not more than 5 percent of GDP. Fiscal revenues would average about 1.5 percent of GDP over a 25-year period and about 3 percent of GDP when production peaks. Given the relatively small gains in revenue, IMF staff recommends a fiscal framework that allows for an initial drawdown of government resources to finance large up-front investment needs, followed by an appropriate target level of the non-resource primary balance which is to serve as a medium-term fiscal anchor. Issues related to managing the volatility of resource revenues are also discussed.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The ruling party won about half of the seats in the October 2018 municipal elections, but the political landscape is becoming more complex and uncertain, with the competition among the three traditional parties intensifying ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. The economic outlook remains strong, underpinned by robust consumption and investment, but risks are tilted downside. Growth is projected to stay around 7½ percent in 2018–19. Inflation is expected to remain subdued.