This Selected Issues paper estimates the macroeconomic impact of these discoveries and discusses potential fiscal frameworks for managing related revenues. Pre-production investment (2019–2021) will lead to an increase in the current account deficit; however, this will be followed by a boost to exports as hydrocarbon production comes online (2022 onward). Discoveries are important but will not lead to a major transformation of the economy, with hydrocarbons expected to make up not more than 5 percent of GDP. Fiscal revenues would average about 1.5 percent of GDP over a 25-year period and about 3 percent of GDP when production peaks. Given the relatively small gains in revenue, IMF staff recommends a fiscal framework that allows for an initial drawdown of government resources to finance large up-front investment needs, followed by an appropriate target level of the non-resource primary balance which is to serve as a medium-term fiscal anchor. Issues related to managing the volatility of resource revenues are also discussed.
Statistical data and issues are discussed in this paper. Mauritania reached the completion point under the enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. In July 2004, a new economic team took actions to tighten fiscal and monetary policies. The authorities intend to adopt sound principles for oil revenue management and tracking (various frameworks, such as the one proposed in the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative, are under consideration). Executive Directors welcomed the authorities’ willingness to prepare for the transition to a more flexible exchange rate.
In Senegal, average annual real GDP growth has been more than 5 percent since 1995, with inflation well below 3 percent. Senegal’s economic performance has been broadly satisfactory in 2000 and during the first quarter of 2001. Yet, despite this economic performance, poverty is still prevalent. According to the household survey of 1995 Enquête Sénégalaise Auprès des Ménages (ESAM), 65 percent of the population is below the poverty line. The human development index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) ranks Senegal 154th out of 174 countries.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.