This paper concludes that the existing framework remains broadly appropriate, but proposes methodological refinements to improve the assessment of market access, clarifies how serious short-term vulnerabilities are assessed, and proposes a modest extension of the transition period before graduation decisions become effective.
The paper suggests an operationally usable framework for the evaluation of growth inclusiveness—the inclusive growth framework (IGF). Based on the data on growth, poverty, and inequality, the framework allows for the quantitative assessment of growth inclusiveness. The assessment relies on the decomposition of the change in poverty into growth, distribution, and decile effects, which can be calculated using the Distributive Analysis Stata Package (DASP). Availability of at least two household surveys is the main precondition for the use of the IGF. The application of the IGF is illustrated with two country cases of Senegal and Djibouti.
This Selected Issues paper examines growth, structural transformation, and diversification in Mali. At present, the majority of Mali’s population is employed in low-productivity agriculture, and the secondary sector is underdeveloped. Further structural transformation and diversification of output and exports could thus yield significant growth dividends, but will be challenging in the context of a rapid projected increase in the workforce over coming decades, much of which would need to be absorbed by the agricultural sector. Policies could focus on easing the constraints to structural transformation in key areas such as education and the business climate, as well as devising a clear strategy for tackling the challenges posed by rapid population growth.
This Selected Issues paper assesses The Gambia’s external competitiveness by reviewing developments in several indicators, ranging from exchange rate-based indices to survey-based assessments of the investment climate. The paper reviews the evolution of several multilateral and bilateral real exchange rate indices for The Gambia, and summarizes the results of a regression analysis that tests for misalignment of the exchange rate. The paper also evaluates the degree of autonomy extended to the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) under the provisions of the new Central Bank of The Gambia Act, 2005.
This paper investigates convergence and dynamic effects of human and physical capital on growth, in WAEMU countries. Using recently developed models for panel data and a growth accounting model, the study finds that growth is largely explained by changes in literacy rates and factor accumulation, but not by growth of total factor productivity (TFP). Nevertheless, the panel estimation identifies aid, government spending, credit to the private sector, and openness as positive determinants of TFP growth, and government deficits as a negative determinant. The study also finds that per capita income in lower-income WAEMU countries converge to per capita income in higher-income ones when economic policies are similar. These results suggest opportunities for policymakers to enhance growth and convergence.
The papers in this volume address three important issues: the role ofexchange-rate policy in enhancing the competitiveness of African manufactured exports; the steps that can be taken to improve production efficiency; and the role of institutional and structural reforms in promoting competitiveness in manufacturing and in improving Africa's attractiveness to foreign direct investment. An epilogue evaluates progress and developments since the conference that gave rise to this volume was held.