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Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
The paper presents a simple framework for the analysis of the macroeconomic implications of de-cashing. Defined as replacing paper currency with convertible deposits, de-cashing would affect all key macroeconomic sectors. The overall macreconomic impact of de-cashing would depend on the balance of growth-enhancing and growth-constraining factors. Starting from a traditional saving-investment balance, the paper develops a four-sector macroeconomic framework. It is purely illustrative and is designed to provide a roadmap for a systematic evaluation of de-cashing. The framework is disaggregated into the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors and potential implications of de-cashing are then identified in each sector. Finally, the paper draws a balance on possible positive and negative macroeconomic implications of de-cashing, and proposes policies capable of augmenting its economic and social benefits, while reducing potential costs.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines implications of capital account liberalization in Iceland. Capital controls were critical in 2008 to avoid a more severe collapse of the Icelandic economy. Six years later, capital inflows have been liberalized, but most outflows remain restricted. Iceland has used the breathing room to reduce flow and stock vulnerabilities, strengthen institutions, and prepare for the lifting of capital controls. Simulations using the central bank’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (QMM) suggest that, compared with the 2008 crisis episode, the economy can better withstand the impact of an abrupt removal of capital controls. However, the outcome would be dependent on a number of factors, including resident depositor behavior.
International Monetary Fund
The external sector assessments use a range of methods and metrics, including the External Balance Assessment approach developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desirable levels of current account balances and real exchange rates (Box 3 of the 2014 Pilot External Sector Report discusses the use of this methodology). The overall assessments of external positions are based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis, including assessment of international reserves holdings, while taking account of relevant uncertainties. The assessments, which are multilaterally consistent, highlight the role of policies in shaping external positions.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines external developments and competitiveness in France. Over the past decade, the current account has deteriorated from a surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2002 to a deficit of about 2.3 percent in 2012, as France lost ground in goods trade and services recorded just a slight increase in global market shares. The slight improvement of the trade deficit seen in 2012 may suggest a change in trend, although it is still too early to determine. Past deterioration in export performance points to competitiveness weaknesses, rooted in significant rigidities in labor and product markets.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Portugal’s economy is in deep recession, and the crisis has opened up a large output gap, with severe consequences for employment and government revenue. While the focus is on the medium- and long-term, this analysis also offers insights on how deep the output gap is. It also highlights ways in which policies and reforms can promote growth over the longer haul and suggests that achieving a 2-percent growth rate over the long term—consistent with moderate convergence growth—is a realistic objective.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) on Data Module for Georgia. Following the 2002 ROSC mission, Georgia has continued to make impressive improvements in statistical compilation and dissemination in all areas of statistics covered by the Data ROSC. Georgia’s macroeconomic statistics are generally of high quality and adequately meet users’ needs. Georgia has made tangible improvements on the legal, institutional, methodological, and dissemination aspects of data quality.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes whether cyclical factors, including the large real exchange rate appreciation in recent years in New Zealand, can account for the rapidity of the recent rise in import penetration, or whether more lasting structural changes, such as the effects of globalization, may have played a role. The paper also looks at New Zealand’s vulnerabilities from two angles. It evaluates the external position of the country, and then assesses the health and soundness of various sectors of the economy by looking at their balance sheets and the key vulnerability indicators.
Mr. John Cady and Mr. Anthony J. Pellechio
Data published in IMF country staff reports and International Financial Statistics (IFS) may differ for identical variables and, at times, users may be unaware of the reasons for these differences and lack the information needed to permit reconciliation. Such discrepancies stem principally from differences in the objectives of IMF country staff reports and their data requirements, on the one hand, and IFS, on the other. This paper presents the results of a study of the consistency of annual data on core statistical indicators required for Fund surveillance presented in the IMF's IFS and a sample of recently published Article IV consultation reports. The paper finds a significant incidence of apparent discrepancies for similarly defined variables.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
In the late 1990s, a series of capital account crises rocked the global economy. The IMF found itself at the center of this turmoil and criticized as never before. The experience triggered extensive internal and external reexaminations of IMF policies and practices and intensified the attention paid by the IMF to identifying vulnerabilities and preventing and resolving crises. It also encouraged the organization to add an external perspective to its learning culture.