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Science > Energy

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Do Renewables Shield Inflation from Fossil Fuel-Price Fluctuations?
Laurent Millischer, Chenxu Fu, Ulrich Volz, and John Beirne
This study investigates the relationship between the adoption of renewable energy and the sensitivity of inflation to changes in fossil energy prices across 69 countries over a 50-year period from 1973 to 2022. In the wake of recently increased oil and gas prices leading to a surge in inflation, the notion of a “divine coincidence” suggests that higher levels of renewable energy adoption, in addition to fighting climate change, could mitigate fossil fuel price-induced inflation volatility. Confirming the divine coincidence hypothesis could be an argument in favor of greening monetary policy. However, our empirical results are inconsistent with the hypothesis as we find no evidence that increased renewable energy adoption reduces the impact of fossil fuel price changes on energy inflation rates. This counter-intuitive result may be attributed to idiosyncratic national energy policies, potential threshold effects, or trade linkage spillovers. As the world continues transitioning towards a low-carbon economy, understanding the implications of this shift on inflation dynamics is crucial.
Keywords:
Inflation; Renewable Energy; Energy Prices; Oil Price; Monetary Policy; inflation volatility; inflation dynamics; energy inflation; inflation expectation; share of renewable; inflation sensitivity; electricity price inflation; Energy pricing; Fuel prices; Consumption; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Cabo Verde: Technical Assistance Report-Climate Policy Diagnostic
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Cabo Verde faces development challenges from multiple structural factors, including insularity, territorial discontinuity, fragility of ecosystems, and scarcity of natural resources, namely water and arable land. Climate change implications are amplifying these challenges. As an island extension of the arid Sahel zone, Cabo Verde faces severe water shortage, which the country addresses more and more through energy intensive desalination, using electricity produced largely by thermal power plants, which depend entirely on imported fossil fuels. The resulting high energy prices directly impact the cost of water production. In conjunction with climate change induced aridity, the energy-water-climate nexus presents the core development challenge for the country.
Keywords:
climate change implication; cross government coordination; policy priority; climate change management coordination; authorities of Cabo Verde; government transfer; Climate change; Renewable energy; Electricity; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on St. Kitts and Nevis studies economic benefits from energy transition. Cheaper and more stable energy prices can support macroeconomic stability. In addition to the aforementioned effects, low and stable energy prices can mitigate the adverse impact from terms-of-trade shocks and reduce inflation volatility, thus contributing to smoothing out economic cycles. The energy landscape of St. Kitts and Nevis calls for energy reform. The two islands of St. Kitts and Nevis rely heavily on fossil fuels, primarily diesel, to power their grids without Interconnection. The analysis uses cross-country examples to examine the channels through which the adoption of renewable energy on a large scale can yield numerous long-term economic benefits. Transitioning to domestic renewable energy sources could stabilize domestic energy prices and reduce the volatility of inflation. A sharp reduction in energy costs in St. Kitts and Nevis could promote sectoral diversification. High-energy costs can prohibit economic diversification, particularly into energy intensive industries.
Keywords:
energy transition index; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; carbon capture in St. Kitts and Nevis; inflation volatility; copyright page; Renewable energy; Electricity; Energy prices; Non-renewable resources; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with St. Kitts and Nevis discusses that despite a continued strong tourism performance, growth fell to 3.4 percent in 2023 due to delays in public and private sector investment projects. The economic outlook is positive thanks to the renewable energy projects that would significantly reshape the economy. A privately funded utility-scale solar and battery storage project is expected to be completed in 2025 and a geothermal project in Nevis is at the planning stage. Debt and cash management could be improved and the social security fund requires urgent reform. Maintaining a large amount of short-term debt can be costly, particularly when fiscal buffers are available. The 2023 external position is assessed to be weaker than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. The current account deficit is projected to fall to over the medium term supported by lower fossil fuel imports. International reserves are adequate.
Keywords:
CBI revenue; GDP estimate; ECCB website; visitor expenditure survey; advance CBI legislation; ECCB member country; CBI program; Renewable energy; Current spending; Nonperforming loans; Capital spending; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes drivers of core inflation in Austria. Inflation in Austria has declined on falling energy prices, but the pace of its return to the two percent target is uncertain. In order to gain insight into the likely pace of disinflation, this chapter examines key drivers of core inflation from two perspectives. First, it explores how energy prices have affected core inflation by examining differences in inflation trends between core goods and services with a relatively high energy-input content versus those with a relatively low energy-input content. Second, the paper uses a parsimonious econometric model to generate forecasts of core inflation. The paper concludes that there are good reasons to expect core inflation to keep falling as lower energy prices continue to pass through to core prices and as euro-area inflation, a key determinant of Austrian inflation in the econometric model, continues to fall. However, the IMF staff does not project Austrian inflation to reach the two percent target for some time, given inflation’s current elevated level and somewhat sticky services inflation.
Keywords:
housing price indicator; core inflation development; housing supply gap; A. looming expenditure pressure; model-implied core inflation; Inflation; Housing; Renewable energy; Women; Europe; Global