Africa > Rwanda

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Lisbeth Rivas and Mr. Joe Crowley
Statistical agencies worldwide are increasingly turning to new data sources, including administrative data, to improve statistical coverage. Administrative data can significantly enhance the quality of national statistics and produce synergies with tax administration and other government agencies, supporting better decision making, policy advice, and economic performance. Compared to economic censuses and business surveys, administrative data are less burdensome to collect and produce more timely, detailed, and accurate data with better coverage. This paper specifically explores the use of value added tax and income tax records to enhance the compilation of national accounts statistics.
Paul Beaudry and Tim Willems
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission about compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS) in Rwanda. The mission reviewed the roadmap of the interagency GFS technical working group, the structure of the public sector, the GFS compilation process, and the conversion of source data to standard fiscal tables consistent with international standards. The mission fully endorsed the authorities’ work program going forward, and agreed that the step-by-step approach starting with producing solid and credible budgetary central government data. The mission cautioned that increasing frequency and expanding coverage of fiscal reports to include the local government sector and, eventually, the extrabudgetary units, will need to be an iterative process requiring continued determined efforts.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission to assist authorities in Rwanda in aligning the compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS) in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. It was recommended that the Ministry of Finance (MINECOFIN) should officially assign GFS compilation duties to a specific subset of its staff. The mission believes that it is important for the MINECOFIN to make a “permanent” assignment of GFS compilation and dissemination duties so that the work can evolve systematically. In the mission’s view, the Macroeconomic Policy Unit appears to be well placed to perform this task. However, the unit should be allocated appropriate resources to take on the responsibility.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission to assist Rwandan authorities in compiling annual government finance statistics (GFS) for the general government for FY2015/16 and high-frequency GFS for the budgetary central government and central government. It was observed that the annual GFS compilation is on track and even exceeding the expectations. The compilation of high frequency data should now be the focus of the authorities’ efforts. Quarterly Central Government data are expected to be compiled within 60 days for FY2017/18. Monthly BCG data are already compiled within 30 days from end of the period. In both cases, the Rwandan authorities have made some initial progress.
Carlos Góes
Both sides of the institutions and growth debate have resorted largely to microeconometric techniques in testing hypotheses. In this paper, I build a panel structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for a short panel of 119 countries over 10 years and find support for the institutions hypothesis. Controlling for individual fixed effects, I find that exogenous shocks to a proxy for institutional quality have a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP per capita. On average, a 1 percent shock in institutional quality leads to a peak 1.7 percent increase in GDP per capita after six years. Results are robust to using a different proxy for institutional quality. There are different dynamics for advanced economies and developing countries. This suggests diminishing returns to institutional quality improvements.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This chapter emphasizes the importance of health policy and its implementation and connection to economic growth. The chapter also offers a different view of progress in the provision of better health facilities. The study looks at today’s health systems—the amalgam of people, practices, rules, and institutions that serve the health needs of a population—and at the economics behind them. The role good health plays in individuals’ and households’ ability to rise and remain above the poverty line is stressed. Several health reports are presented.
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi, S. V. S. Dixit, and Gabor Pinter
Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
International Monetary Fund
This evaluation of technical assistance (TA) in statistics covers two post-conflict countries, namely, Mozambique and Rwanda during the period 2000–08. The TA, including training, covered the broad spectrum of the Statistics Department’s (STA) program, including collaboration with the East Africa Regional Technical Assistance Center (East AFRITAC), the U. K. Department for International Development (DFID), and the Japanese-funded General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) projects, as well as TA funded directly from the IMF’s budget. The emerging lessons also provide a useful guide to future TA to non-English-speaking countries. The evaluation is based on missions to each country and relied on responses to questionnaires, desk reviews of available data, and discussions with country authorities, donors, data users, and national officials who participated in IMF courses in statistics.
Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, Mr. Anupam Basu, and Mr. Anthony E Calamitsis
This paper analyzes the factors affecting economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, using data for 1981–97. The results indicate that per capita real GDP growth is positively influenced by economic policies that raise the ratio of private investment to GDP, promote human capital development, lower the ratio of the budget deficit to GDP, safeguard external competitiveness, and stimulate export volume growth. The favorable evolution of these variables played an important role in the region’s apparent postreform recovery of 1995–97. The paper also discusses a policy framework to promote sustainable economic growth and reduce poverty in sub-Saharan Africa