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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Among EU countries, Romania suffered a relatively shallow recession in the COVID-19 crisis, aided by macroeconomic easing. A strong recovery is projected in 2021. The new government is committed to balance continued pandemic-related support with the start of a medium-term fiscal consolidation trajectory that corrects pre-pandemic excesses, while implementing a range of structural reforms. These efforts, as well as the medium-term recovery, should be bolstered by large Next Generation EU grants.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Romania discusses that growth in 2019 is expected to stay above potential at 4 percent, led by continued fiscal stimulus and strong wage growth, and be accompanied by further widening of current account and fiscal deficits. The focus of discussions was on actions required to curb the widening imbalances and to re-orient the economy toward investment and sustainable income convergence. It is recommended that Romania take advantage of strong growth and start durable fiscal consolidation underpinned by high-quality measures to rein in the twin deficits and improve the macroeconomic policy mix. The more fiscal policy tightens, the less monetary tightening is needed. The report also advises to modernize revenue administration and improve expenditure efficiency. Reassessment of the new pension law to balance social needs and fiscal sustainability is also important. Rising vulnerability calls for a balanced macroeconomic policy mix built on durable fiscal consolidation. High-quality fiscal consolidation would reduce the burden on monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, mitigate external pressure by containing the current account deterioration, and bolster growth potential by improving the balance between consumption and investment.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Romania’s Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2013 Stand-by Arrangement. Romania experienced strong economic growth in 2016, resulting in a closed output gap. Private consumption was boosted by an expansionary and procyclical fiscal policy and wage increases. The cyclically adjusted budget deficit grew by 1.5 percent of GDP in 2016, reflecting large tax rate cuts and wage increases. Growth is expected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017—supported by continued stimulus to private consumption from a new round of fiscal relaxation and wage increases—and to moderate to 3.5 percent in the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report discusses measures for enabling Romania’s Large Taxpayer Office (LTO) to reduce the tax gap. It recommends changing the criteria for inclusion of taxpayers in the LTO so that it is primarily based on turnover. The criteria should apply to taxpayers throughout Romania and should be the primary mechanism to establish whether a taxpayer is “in or out.” It is also important to maintain or increase the current number of employees in the LTO, even though the new criteria may significantly reduce the LTO taxpayer population. Although the taxpayer population will be lower, its importance in terms of revenue that needs to be protected will increase.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks related to the Romanian economy. Romania made important progress in addressing economic imbalances and restoring growth after the global financial crisis. Prudent policies, partly in the context of successive IMF-supported programs, reduced vulnerabilities, and the fiscal and current account deficits improved markedly. However, economic policies have weakened recently and hard-won gains are at risk of being reversed. Governance problems have received more attention recently, and Romania has made progress compared to its peers in the fight against corruption. Staff’s baseline projection is for growth to remain above potential in 2016–17.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The key policy challenges facing countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe remain broadly unchanged, among them supporting domestic demand, addressing financial crisis legacies, rebuilding buffers against external shocks, and improving the business environment. Country-specific priorities depend on how far along they are in the postcrisis adjustment and their exposure to external risks.