Western Hemisphere > Paraguay

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 32 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Debts, Public x
Clear All Modify Search
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
After two consecutive years of GDP decline driven by external shocks, Paraguay’s economy rebounded in 2021. In 2019, drought and flooding reduced economic growth to -0.4 percent. In 2020, the impact of the pandemic on the secondary and tertiary sectors was partly compensated by a rebound of agriculture and an extensive emergency package, and GDP fell by only 0.8 percent. Growth rebounded to 4.2 percent in 2021, but heatwaves and a severe drought decelerated the recovery and have limited 2022 growth prospects, though a recovery is projected for 2023 and the medium-term. While the loss of agricultural export revenue is affecting Paraguay’s balance of payments in 2022, the external position in 2021 was stronger than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
In the past two decades, Paraguay has seen strong growth and a sharp reduction in poverty. Strong GDP growth was the result of sound macro policies (with low inflation and low fiscal deficits and debt) and an agricultural commodity price boom which spilled over to the non-tradable sector. Growth was not just high but also volatile, as bad weather shocks led to poor harvests, which spill over to the broader economy. In early 2020, Paraguay was rebounding strongly from another weather shock, and full-year growth was forecast at over 4 percent. In 2019, bad weather had reduced the harvest, and GDP growth had come to a near standstill. A recovery started in the second half of 2019 and gathered strength in early 2020—in February economic activity was 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The Covid-19 epidemic halted the recovery. An early lockdown—which kept the death toll among the lowest in the region—led to a sharp contraction in economic activity, with April activity levels at 20 percent below those in February. Women, informal sector workers, and workers in the service sector were particularly hard hit; while children were severely affected by the closing of the schools until the end of 2020.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
In the past two decades, Paraguay has seen strong growth and a sharp reduction in poverty. Strong GDP growth was the result of sound macro policies (with low inflation and low fiscal deficits and debt) and an agricultural commodity price boom which spilled over to the non-tradable sector. Growth was not just high but also volatile, as bad weather shocks led to poor harvests, which spill over to the broader economy. In early 2020, Paraguay was rebounding strongly from another weather shock, and full-year growth was forecast at over 4 percent. In 2019, bad weather had reduced the harvest, and GDP growth had come to a near standstill. A recovery started in the second half of 2019 and gathered strength in early 2020—in February economic activity was 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The Covid-19 epidemic halted the recovery. An early lockdown—which kept the death toll among the lowest in the region—led to a sharp contraction in economic activity, with April activity levels at 20 percent below those in February. Women, informal sector workers, and workers in the service sector were particularly hard hit; while children were severely affected by the closing of the schools until the end of 2020.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). In March 2020, Paraguay was hit by the Covid-19 epidemic, which has created fiscal and balance of payments needs. The authorities’ policy response to the epidemic has been timely, but limited access to financing and a weakened fiscal position constrain the ability to pursue a deeper emergency response. The Paraguayan authorities are requesting financial assistance under the IMF’s RFI to address the urgent balance of payments needs associated with the Covid-19 epidemic. Given the urgency of their request, there is no time to put in place a full-fledged upper credit tranche program, and the authorities are of the view that they can make suitable adjustments to manage their medium-term balance of payments challenges. In order to prevent the emergence of permanently high deficits after the crisis, Paraguay should return to the deficit ceiling under the Fiscal Responsibility Law. The exchange rate should continue to function as shock absorber, and monetary policy should focus on inflation targeting.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation on Paraguay focused on the policies needed to promote long-term growth, widen the tax base, improve public spending efficiency, and strengthen financial sector supervision. Poverty has fallen sharply, from 58 percent in 2002 to 26 percent currently, although it remains one of the highest in Latin America. Continued convergence is expected to help reduce poverty further and help generate revenues to finance large spending needs. The banking sector is well-capitalized and stable, but the casas de credito and casas comerciales need to be better understood and supervised. The pension system needs reform, both to prevent large pension deficits in the future, and to boost the development of the domestic capital market for long-term instruments. The authorities concurred with IMF staff’s assessment of the main bottlenecks to long-term economic growth. They also agreed structural reforms would help to attract more foreign investments and increase the dynamism of domestic private sector.
Mr. Antonio David and Mr. Daniel Leigh
This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and long-term fiscal health and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, central bank reports, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation for these economies
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Paraguay has grown robustly despite a more challenging external environment. The economy gained momentum toward the end of 2016 and expanded by 6.5 percent (year-over-year) during the first quarter of 2017. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017, reflecting a more moderate pace of activity in the second half of the year. Investment will likely be a crucial driver of growth, as major infrastructure projects are undertaken. Over the medium term, real GDP growth is expected to remain near potential of just below 4 percent. Risks around the outlook are to the downside, especially from heightened political uncertainty in Brazil.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures to establish a structural balance rule and a public debt objective in Paraguay. The analysis suggests that the authorities’ structural balance formula should be more conservative and—to mitigate the risk of unwarranted expenditure growth—should assume that future structural revenues will grow at the same pace as trend GDP. Under this assumption, the structural balance rule is broadly equivalent to an expenditure rule, constraining spending to grow at trend GDP—a formula that is simpler to implement and easier to communicate to the public. Moreover, the formula should account for new revenue measures more explicitly, provided there are safeguards to ensure that they are estimated fairly.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses the recent economic developments of Paraguay. Against the backdrop of a regional slowdown, Paraguay’s economy remains relatively resilient. The economy experienced some loss of momentum over the past year due to unfavorable external shocks. Inflation pressures remain contained despite significant depreciation of the guaraní against the U.S. dollar. Macroeconomic policies remain accommodative in light of subdued inflation and slower growth. Recently, credit growth has moderated, but credit quality has deteriorated. To further strengthen fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policy frameworks, Paraguay outlines structural reform agenda and measures. The national development plan places emphasis on inclusive growth and poverty reduction.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Paraguay has slowed from record-high growth in 2013, but remains buoyant. Construction, manufacturing, and services led the expansion in 2014, whereas electricity production declined, and re-exports suffered from weak growth in Brazil. Full-year growth is estimated to have slightly exceeded 4 percent. Real GDP is projected to remain close to 4 percent in 2015. Weak trading partner growth and lower export prices cloud the outlook, and agricultural production is projected to rise only marginally above the high level of 2014.