This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and long-term fiscal health and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, central bank reports, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation for these economies
This paper presents estimates of fiscal multipliers in Paraguay following different econometric techniques and identification approaches. The results point to multipliers for capital expenditure that are substantially higher than multipliers for current expenditure. In addition, the evidence suggests that tax multipliers are close to zero when using conventional identification approaches, but estimates can be much larger when considering the “narrative” approach. One implication of the results is that the balanced budget multiplier for Paraguay i.e. the effect of on output of an increase in expenditures (in particular capital expenditure) financed by taxes is likely to be positive.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures to establish a structural balance rule and a public debt objective in Paraguay. The analysis suggests that the authorities’ structural balance formula should be more conservative and—to mitigate the risk of unwarranted expenditure growth—should assume that future structural revenues will grow at the same pace as trend GDP. Under this assumption, the structural balance rule is broadly equivalent to an expenditure rule, constraining spending to grow at trend GDP—a formula that is simpler to implement and easier to communicate to the public. Moreover, the formula should account for new revenue measures more explicitly, provided there are safeguards to ensure that they are estimated fairly.
Paraguay faces a trade-off between building fiscal credibility and amending the existing fiscal rule to accommodate infrastructure investment and provide space for countercyclical policies. In this paper, we discuss several alternative fiscal rules for Paraguay and present simulations of debt trajectories in each case, assuming a baseline and three deterministic shock scenarios. We provide a supplementary Excel file to replicate debt simulations under different fiscal rules. The results suggest that potential modifications to make the fiscal rules more flexible in Paraguay should be accompanied by a number of safeguards that enhance credibility of the fiscal anchor and preserve sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on the reform options for Paraguay’s fiscal responsibilities law as well as credit growth and banking system vulnerabilities. During the first year of Paraguay’s fiscal responsibility law, implementation has proven challenging, and a debate has emerged over whether its current design is excessively rigid. There are also important reputational costs to amending the framework. Paraguay has experienced rapid credit growth over the past decade. Reflecting these considerations, this chapter analyzes banks’ health and potential risks in Paraguay. Paraguay’s credit markets, as well as the rest of its financial system, are dominated by commercial banks.
Adverse terms-of-trade developments and an unfavorable external environment have contributed to Paraguay's lackluster economic performance. Executive Directors observed the fiscal slippages, weaknesses in national accounts calculations, the statistical coverage of public enterprise operations and external tariffs, and stressed the need to tighten monetary and fiscal stances, and accelerate structural reforms. They welcomed the new strategy under the staff-monitored program, the improvement in the balance of payments, money, the central government's finances, and the country's progress toward meeting the General Data Dissemination Standard.
This paper describes economic developments in Paraguay during the 1990s. After recording a growth rate of 1.3 percent in 1996, real GDP expanded by 2.6 percent in 1997, or about the same rate as population growth. This reflected mainly a recovery in agricultural output owing to abundant rains. GDP growth suffered a new setback in 1998, with preliminary estimates showing a growth rate of only 0.6 percent, owing mainly to the continued stagnation in the manufacturing sector and a reduction of trade-related activities owing to tighter border controls in Brazil.
This Manual, addressed mainly to new staff members in the area and functional departments of the IMF, presents different ways to tackle specific problems that desk economists encounter in analyzing country data. This guide presents an approach to analyzing financial developments in a country and to evaluating the quality of data at the disposal of the staff.
This paper reviews key findings of the IMF’s Annual Report for the fiscal year ended April 1948. The report highlights that during 1947 and in the early part of 1948, considerable progress was made in strengthening the economies that suffered devastation and dislocation as a result of the war. Over the world, generally production rose and recovery continued, despite widespread political tension and conflict, and disturbances. In nearly all countries, however, the need and demand for goods continued to be abnormally great, and there were increasing difficulties in meeting international payments for import surpluses.