Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Tianxiao Zheng
We stress test the global economy to extreme climate change-related shocks on large and interconnected economies. Our analysis (i) identifies large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change-related shocks; (ii) estimates these economies’ external financing needs-at-risk due to these shocks, and (iii) quantifies the spillovers to the global economy using a global network model. We show that large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change could trigger a drain of $1.8 trillion in international reserves (2 percent of 2019’s global GDP). Domestic and multilateral macroeconomic policies can help reduce these global lossess to about $0.8 trillion. The scenario highlights the importance of considering global spillovers when assessing the impact of climate change-related shocks.
Global warming is the most significant threat to ecosystems and people’s health and living standards, especially in small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing different options to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, the empirical analysis indicates that increasing energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuel in electricity generation could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, while investing in physical and financial resilience would yield long-run benefits. From a risk-reward perspective, the advantages of reducing the risks associated with climate change and the health benefits from higher environmental quality clearly outweigh the potential cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short run. The additional revenue generated by environmental taxes could be used to compensate the most vulnerable households, building a multilayered safety net, and strengthening structural resilience.
Tourism was one of the fastest-growing sectors before the COVID-19 pandemic, accounting for about 10 percent of global GDP. But it has also created a number of challenges including environmental degradation, especially in small island countries where the carbon footprint of tourism constitute substantial share of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study empirically investigates the impact of tourism on CO2 emissions in a relatively homogenous panel of 15 Caribbean countries over the period 1960–2019. The results show that international tourist arrivals have a statistically and economically significant effect on CO2 emissions, after controlling for other economic, institutional and social factors. Therefore, managing tourism sustainably requires a comprehensive set of policies and reforms aimed at reducing its impact on environmental quality and curbing excessive dependency on fossil fuel-based energy consumption.
The UK has one of the most ambitious climate mitigation targets in the world, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Long-term emissions reduction targets are legally-binding, there is a well-developed climate change framework including governance frameworks for mitigation and adaptation. Interim national targets or “five-year carbon budgets” are submitted to parliament for approval and there are National Adaptation Programs. The UK has reduced its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44 percent between 1990 and 2019, but it will likely be exposed to severe climate change risks such as increased flooding.
Seychelles’ economic recovery in 2021 vastly outperformed projections, fueled by a faster-than-expected rebound of the tourism sector. The recovery is expected to continue in 2022 with projected real GDP growth of 7.1 percent as the tourism sector shows resilience to COVID-19 waves and geopolitical tensions. The recovery has been accompanied by a significant fiscal overperformance.