Political Science > Environmental Policy

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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses sea-level rise impacts and adaptation in Vanuatu. Sea-level will continue to increase during this century directly caused by global warming and melting of terrestrial ice. While Vanuatu cannot control global sea-level, it can manage how it affects the country by adapting. Staff analysis estimates the cost of sea-level rise under alternative adaptation strategies: (1) no-adaptation; (2) protection; and (3) planned retreat. Such analysis can help the government to identify trade-offs between efficiency and equity, and choose according to the preferences of the population, consistent with public finance objectives. Preliminary results show that complete protection of coastal areas in Vanuatu is costly while planned retreat from the coastline is the least-cost adaptation response. However, given the mountainous nature of the islands, only small areas of the main population centers of Port Vila and Luganville are at risk of being permanently inundated even with very high sea level rise.

Abstract

The analysis in the book suggests that LAC countries are facing substantial challenges related to climate change but have tools at their disposal to seize the opportunities that the climate change presents. To maximize opportunities and minimize the risks LAC countries will need to improve flexibility and adaptability of their economies. Policies aimed at supporting the reallocation of labor and capital across sectors, investing in basic skills and human capital, improving transparency and economic governance to encourage investment in technology and know-how, and creating fiscal space to manage the climate transition would help LAC countries position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by the climate transition.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights Republic of Moldova’s Fifth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, First Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion. The recovery of the economy from the multiple shocks has been slower than anticipated, with growth lower than expected in 2023 and more subdued in 2024. Inflation has remained within the National Bank of Moldova’s target band since last October. The authorities’ continued focus on contingency planning, while maintaining agile policies, has helped contain the impact of recent shocks. Going forward, ongoing efforts to undertake growth-friendly reforms, strengthen energy security, and promote climate resilient investments, while pursuing the path toward EU accession, will support Moldova’s development objectives. Continued progress on anti-corruption reforms is needed to further increase trust in Moldova’s institutions and foster socio-economic development. Adoption of the law establishing a new Anti-Corruption Court, expected this summer, would be a key welcomed development, and the authorities should operationalize the Court quickly and effectively.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents United Republic of Tanzania’s Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Extension of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Rephasing of Access, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The ongoing growth-friendly fiscal consolidation will help buttress fiscal and debt sustainability. Efforts should be geared toward enhancing domestic revenue mobilization and strengthening cash management and commitment controls. Strengthening public financial and investment management will help contain fiscal risks and improve the efficiency of public investment. Performance under Tanzania’s economic reform program supported by the ECF remained strong. The authorities are committed to continue implementing reforms to preserve macro-financial stability, strengthen the economic recovery, and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. Structural reforms are essential to promote inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth. Business reforms should focus on streamlining bureaucratic procedures, simplifying the regulatory regime, and enhancing regulatory transparency. Implementation and enforcement of the authorities’ anti-corruption legislation and strategies is central to enhancing governance.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department, International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept., and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) provides affordable longer-term financing to help eligible IMF members address longer-term structural challenges, thereby progressing toward strengthening their prospective balance of payments stability. This paper takes stock of the initial experience with the RST—focusing on progress and challenges so far—and proposes fine-tuning RST design with a view to strengthening implementation of the Trust’s objectives. The paper also provides an assessment of the adequacy of the Trust’s resources and finds that increased near-term fundraising will be needed to meet strong demand. The Trust’s reserves remain adequate in the baseline and under a range of risk scenarios.
Francesca Caselli, Andresa Lagerborg, and Paulo A Medas
This paper studies the impact of green fiscal rules – designed to protect climate-related spending –on debt dynamics. Simulations of green rules that exempt green spending from the rule limits for an emergingmarket economy illustrate that they can lead to unsustainable debt dynamics when the net zero emissions goal is pursued mostly using spending-based instruments (e.g., investment and subsidies). Or the rule would need to implicitly assume a large fiscal adjustment in the non-green budget, which would undermine its credibility. It will be needed to build broad public consensus for a more comprehensive fiscal strategy that tackles the difficult policy tradeoffs that will be required and takes into account long-term effects. A more appropriate mix of climate policies, including actively employing carbon pricing, should be pursued within the overall setting of fiscal and debt objectives. Developing ‘green’ medium-term fiscal frameworks would help to integrate climate change considerations into fiscal policy design in a more comprehensive manner.
Sidra Rehman and Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.