Political Science > Environmental Policy

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Gregor Schwerhoff and Mouhamadou Sy
The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference reinforced already existing pressure to transition away from fossil fuels, in particular for the most polluting source, coal. We use a comprehensive dataset on bank loans for coal projects to shed light on which type of banks continue to finance coal and how coal phase-out commitments affect coal financing. We find that coal financing is becoming increasingly concentrated, partly in banks with a very high coal exposure. We also find that many coal loans have maturities much shorter than the remaining lifetime of coal assets, thus exposing equity holders of coal assets to the risk of a more difficult loan rollover. An econometric analysis shows that countries with a strong commitment to coal phase-out, fixed in national law for example, receive less coal financing. Using an instrumental variable, we identify this effect as causal.
Kailhao Cai, Thibault Lemaire, Andrea Medici, Giovanni Melina, Gregor Schwerhoff, and Sneha D Thube
Sub-Saharan Africa needs to significantly accelerate its electricity generation. While hydropower is prominent in some countries, solar and wind power generation has lagged other world regions, even though sub-Saharan Africa has some of the most favorable conditions. A mix of domestic and external financing can increase both renewable electricity generation and GDP. In a scenario where about $25 bn in climate finance flows are allocated annually to renewable energy, renewable electricity production could be up to 24 percent higher than in a scenario excluding this financing, and annual GDP growth would be boosted by 0.8 percentage point on average over the next decade, accompanied by stronger labor demand in the electricity sector. Policies can help catalyze climate finance. An ambitious package of governance, business regulations, and external sector reforms is associated with a 20 percent increase in climate finance flows and a 7 percent increase in electricity generation over five years. In addition, implementing climate policies is linked to increases in green foreign direct investment announcements and green electricity production.
Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Samuel Pienknagura, and Gregor Schwerhoff
Meeting COP28 goals requires a substantial increase in clean energy investment by 2030, including in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Amid domestic financial constraints, foreign direct investment (FDI) could play a key role in EMDEs’ ability to close their renewable energy investment gap and finance green projects, more broadly. This Note finds that strengthening climate policies boosts FDI into renewable energy in EMDEs, especially in those with solar power potential, while less clear effects are found for FDI into EVs and green hydrogen possibly due to their recent emergence. Closing the average climate policy gap with respect to AEs could secure 40 percent of the private finance needed for renewable energy investment in EMDEs, helping overcome the impact of high financing costs. Strengthening the macro-structural framework, such as through improving trade and capital account openness and institutional quality, would also raise green FDI inflows, complementing climate policies. Case studies show that countries that attracted FDI into renewable energy put in place a large and diverse set of policies in the electricity sector, including those that secure a revenue stream for investors in the initial phases, such as power-purchase agreements/feed-in tariffs, renewables targets, and complementary investments. Countries that successfully attracted FDI into EVs relied on the development of national sectoral strategies including production and adoption subsidies, prior comparative advantage in the sector, and bilateral alliances with key players in the EV market. Finally, comprehensive national hydrogen strategies that leverage international efforts to boost production, and good conditions for production of renewable energy, were key drivers of green hydrogen FDI. Global initiatives such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships and the EU strategy for green hydrogen are benefitting FDI to EMDEs.
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini, William Oman, Jamie Fraser, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, and Bella Yao
The economy is embedded in, and dependent on, nature. Yet economic activity is degrading nature at an unprecedented pace. Interacting with climate change, nature loss and transformation generates significant threats to the global economy and financial system. However, work on the implications of nature-related risks for macroeconomic and financial sector policies remains at an early stage. This note seeks to contribute to this emerging policy space in three main ways: (i) it proposes a conceptual framework for understanding nature-related risks by mapping out macroeconomic transmission channels, emphasizing their impact on the economy and financial systems through “double materiality;” (ii) it conducts empirical analysis, finding that nearly 38 percent of bank loans of the 100 largest global banks are to harmful subsidies-dependent sectors and 44 percent are exposed to conservation areas under the Global Biodiversity Framework, and that industries most exposed to nature degradation are not well prepared to manage these risks; and (iii) it discusses takeaways for macroeconomic and financial sector policies and frameworks.
Mitali Das, Manuel Linsenmeier, and Gregor Schwerhoff
Climate policy at the subnational level is sometimes framed as being counterproductive, because climate change is considered a collective action problem that can be best addressed in a coalition that should be as large as possible. Using comprehensive data from US states on climate policy and policy outcomes, we show that state-level policy is effective in accelerating the adoption of solar energy. Crucially, however, state policies also have positive spillovers to other states, by making it more likely that neighboring states adopt climate policy as well. By proportionally attributing the spillover effects, we find that many US states achieve more climate benefits through the spillovers to other states than within their own jurisdiction. In a further step, we distinguish between climate policies in the energy sector and policies addressed either at other sectors or greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions generally. We find that climate policies in the energy sector are distinct from other climate policies in two ways: They have a significant effect on solar capacity growth and they diffuse more broadly.

Abstract

The analysis in the book suggests that LAC countries are facing substantial challenges related to climate change but have tools at their disposal to seize the opportunities that the climate change presents. To maximize opportunities and minimize the risks LAC countries will need to improve flexibility and adaptability of their economies. Policies aimed at supporting the reallocation of labor and capital across sectors, investing in basic skills and human capital, improving transparency and economic governance to encourage investment in technology and know-how, and creating fiscal space to manage the climate transition would help LAC countries position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by the climate transition.

Diego Mesa Puyo, Zhiyong An, Thomas Benninger, and Nate Vernon
Mauritania requested capacity development from the Fiscal Affairs Department on carbon taxation, fossil fuel pricing and fiscal aspects of hydrogen development. This is a high-level summary of the technical assistant and the recommendations provided to the authorities. The report assesses options to gradually introduce a carbon tax to bring the country in line with its Nationally Determined Contribution for 2030 and net-zero pledge for 2050, including targeted support for vulnerable households. It then reviews approach to price fossil fuel products and proposes a revised methodology better aligned with international petroleum markets, along with a fiscally neutral smoothing mechanism to mitigate the impact of abrupt price changes on Mauritanian consumers. Finally, the report evaluates fiscal aspects related to the development of the low and zero-emissions hydrogen to ensure the country continues to position itself as an attractive investment destination without foregoing future revenue streams.
Geoffroy Dolphin, Romain A Duval, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Galen Sher
Following the 2022 energy crisis, this paper investigates whether Europe’s ongoing efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions can also enhance its energy security. The global computational general equilibrium model analysis finds that individual policy tools, including carbon pricing, energy efficiency standards, and accelerated permitting procedures for renewables, tend to improve energy security. Compared to carbon pricing, sector-specific regulations deliver larger energy security gains and spread those more evenly across countries, benefitting also some fossil-fuel-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe. This finding strengthens the case for a broad climate policy package, which can both achieve Europe’s emissions-reduction goals and deliver sizeable energy security co-benefits. An illustrative package, which would cut emissions in the EU, UK, and EFTA by 55 percent with respect to 1990 levels by 2030, is estimated to improve the two energy security metrics used in this paper by close to 8 percent already by 2030. Beyond the policies analyzed in the model, the paper also discusses the technology, market design, and supply chain reforms that Europe needs for an energy-secure green transition.