Ms. Zeina Hasna, Ms. Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Samuel Pienknagura, and Gregor Schwerhoff
Innovation in low-carbon technologies (LCTs), which is essential in the fight against climate change, has slowed in recent years. This Staff Discussion Note shows that a global climate policy strategy can bolster innovation in, and deployment of, LCTs. Countries that expand their climate policy portfolio exhibit higher (1) climate-change-mitigation-patent filings, (2) LCT trade flows, and (3) “green” foreign direct investment flows. Importantly, boosting innovation in, and deployment of, LCTs yields medium-term growth, which mitigates potential costs from climate policies. This note stresses the importance of international policy coordination and cooperation by showcasing evidence of potential climate policy spillovers.
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
The membership is facing significant challenges, including high inflation, rising food and energy insecurity, elevated debt levels, tightening financial conditions, volatile capital flows and exchange rates, and intensifying geopolitical fragmentation. To this end, the Executive Board Work Program focuses on policy responses and bilateral and multilateral advice to stabilize the global economy and build resilience, critical financial assistance to those countries most affected by these shocks, and capacity development support to help implement policy advice. More than ever, the Fund has a key role to play in promoting international cooperation and collaborative solutions to shared challenges, including those related to climate, digitalization, and inclusion.
To reach the global net-zero goal, the level of carbon emissions has to fall substantially at speed rarely seen in history, highlighting the need to identify structural breaks in carbon emission patterns and understand forces that could bring about such breaks. In this paper, we identify and analyze structural breaks using machine learning methodologies. We find that downward trend shifts in carbon emissions since 1965 are rare, and most trend shifts are associated with non-climate structural factors (such as a change in the economic structure) rather than with climate policies. While we do not explicitly analyze the optimal mix between climate and non-climate policies, our findings highlight the importance of the nonclimate policies in reducing carbon emissions. On the methodology front, our paper contributes to the climate toolbox by identifying country-specific structural breaks in emissions for top 20 emitters based on a user-friendly machine-learning tool and interpreting the results using a decomposition of carbon emission ( Kaya Identity).
This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.