This paper highlights Republic of Moldova’s Fifth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, First Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion. The recovery of the economy from the multiple shocks has been slower than anticipated, with growth lower than expected in 2023 and more subdued in 2024. Inflation has remained within the National Bank of Moldova’s target band since last October. The authorities’ continued focus on contingency planning, while maintaining agile policies, has helped contain the impact of recent shocks. Going forward, ongoing efforts to undertake growth-friendly reforms, strengthen energy security, and promote climate resilient investments, while pursuing the path toward EU accession, will support Moldova’s development objectives. Continued progress on anti-corruption reforms is needed to further increase trust in Moldova’s institutions and foster socio-economic development. Adoption of the law establishing a new Anti-Corruption Court, expected this summer, would be a key welcomed development, and the authorities should operationalize the Court quickly and effectively.
Moldova is more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of Europe, due to its (i) higher sensitivity to changes in climate conditions (reflecting its heavier reliance on agriculture, a comparatively-larger rural population, high dependence on energy imports and limited diversification of energy supply sources, and limited financial resources to provide high-quality public services); and (ii) weaker adaptative capacity to climate shocks (due to its comparatively weaker disaster preparedness strategy, low adaptation in the agriculture sector and poorer quality of infrastructure). Adaptation investments can substantially reduce output losses caused by natural disasters, are more cost-efficient than responding to disasters ex-post, and can contribute to boost Moldova’s long-term economic growth and support its development objectives.