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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Kenya is confronted with the need to chart a course that attends directly to the recent public outcry. The widespread protests that started in June and resulted in tragic loss of lives and injuries were triggered by the authorities’ efforts to correct a large tax revenue shortfall in FY2023/24 through revenue raising proposals in the 2024 Finance Bill, some of which were unpopular or seen as regressive. The protests forced the President to withdraw the Bill, introduce significant spending cuts through a Supplementary Budget in July, and reconstitute the Cabinet in August. Persistent difficulties in mobilizing revenue coupled with spending rigidities have led to a further accumulation of pending bills, and necessitated deep cuts in development spending, with potential for knock-on effects on growth and debt sustainability. Against this backdrop, preceded by large exogenous shocks (COVID-19, global developments impacting import price and affordable access to market finance, and severe multi-season droughts), the authorities face a complex and difficult balancing act: meeting critical spending needs for priority areas (social programs, health, and education), servicing large upcoming debt obligations, and boosting domestic revenues. Earlier in the year, Kenya addressed the exceptional balance of payments (BoP) needs associated with repayment of the June 2024 US$2 billion Eurobond, boosting market confidence that helped strengthen the shilling and build reserves. Meanwhile, fiscal pressures continue, including from uncertainty surrounding the constitutionality of the 2023 Finance Act on which the Supreme Court’s decision is awaited.
Anna Belianska, Nadja Bohme, Kailhao Cai, Yoro Diallo, Saanya Jain, Mr. Giovanni Melina, Ms. Pritha Mitra, Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, and Solo Zerbo
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the region in the world most vulnerable to climate change despite its cumulatively emitting the least amount of greenhouse gases. Substantial financing is urgently needed across the economy—for governments, businesses, and households—to support climate change adaptation and mitigation, which are critical for advancing resilient and green economic development as well as meeting commitments under the Paris Agreement. Given the immensity of SSA’s other development needs, this financing must be in addition to existing commitments on development finance. There are many potential ways to raise financing to meet adaptation and mitigation needs, spanning from domestic revenue mobilization to various forms of international private financing. Against this backdrop, S SA policymakers and stakeholders are exploring sources of financing for climate action that countries may not have used substantially in the past. This Staff Climate Note presents some basic information on opportunities and challenges associated with these financing instruments.