Colombia is deeply committed to climate change policies, as evidenced by Law N° 1931 (2018), which outlines actions to adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, aiming to decrease the vulnerability of the population and ecosystems while promoting a sustainable, low-carbon economy. The National Statistical office of the country, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE), is dedicated to developing integrated environmental and economic data, and regularly compiles and disseminates selected accounts from the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA). However, to effectively implement climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, Colombia requires substantial amounts of granular, relevant, and reliable data for evidence-based planning. In this context, a mission took place from July 17-21, 2023, funded by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) and hosted by DANE. During this mission, discussions with authorities focused on key priorities, identifying feasible developments such as enhancements to existing SEEA energy and emissions flow accounts, mineral and energy asset accounts, and the establishment of domestic carbon footprints.
Rudolfs Bems, Luciana Juvenal, Weifeng Liu, and Warwick J. McKibbin
This paper assesses the economic effects of climate policies on different regions and countries with a focus on external adjustment. The paper finds that various climate policies could have substantially different impacts on external balances over the next decade. A credible and globally coordinated carbon tax would decrease current account balances in greener advanced economies and increase current accounts in more fossil-fuel-dependent regions, reflecting a disproportionate decline in investment for the latter group. Green supply-side policies—green subsidy and infrastructure investment—would increase investment and saving but would have a more muted external sector impact because of the constrained pace of expansion for renewables or the symmetry of the infrastructure boost. Country characteristics, such as initial carbon intensity and net fossil fuel exports, ultimately determine the current account responses. For the global economy, a coordinated climate change mitigation policy package would shift capital towards advanced economies. Following an initial rise, the global interest rates would fall over time with increases in the carbon tax. These external sector effects, however, depend crucially on the degree of international policy coordination and credibility.
Francesca Caselli, Andresa Lagerborg, and Paulo A Medas
This paper studies the impact of green fiscal rules – designed to protect climate-related spending –on debt dynamics. Simulations of green rules that exempt green spending from the rule limits for an emergingmarket economy illustrate that they can lead to unsustainable debt dynamics when the net zero emissions goal is pursued mostly using spending-based instruments (e.g., investment and subsidies). Or the rule would need to implicitly assume a large fiscal adjustment in the non-green budget, which would undermine its credibility. It will be needed to build broad public consensus for a more comprehensive fiscal strategy that tackles the difficult policy tradeoffs that will be required and takes into account long-term effects. A more appropriate mix of climate policies, including actively employing carbon pricing, should be pursued within the overall setting of fiscal and debt objectives. Developing ‘green’ medium-term fiscal frameworks would help to integrate climate change considerations into fiscal policy design in a more comprehensive manner.
Diego Mesa Puyo, Zhiyong An, Thomas Benninger, and Nate Vernon
Mauritania requested capacity development from the Fiscal Affairs Department on carbon taxation, fossil fuel pricing and fiscal aspects of hydrogen development. This is a high-level summary of the technical assistant and the recommendations provided to the authorities. The report assesses options to gradually introduce a carbon tax to bring the country in line with its Nationally Determined Contribution for 2030 and net-zero pledge for 2050, including targeted support for vulnerable households. It then reviews approach to price fossil fuel products and proposes a revised methodology better aligned with international petroleum markets, along with a fiscally neutral smoothing mechanism to mitigate the impact of abrupt price changes on Mauritanian consumers. Finally, the report evaluates fiscal aspects related to the development of the low and zero-emissions hydrogen to ensure the country continues to position itself as an attractive investment destination without foregoing future revenue streams.
This Selected Issues paper highlights disinflation and monetary transmission in Cyprus. Inflation in Cyprus dropped in 2023 due to the diminishing impact of supply-side shocks and moderating demand. However, some domestic price pressures persist, mostly from nonfiscal aggregate demand. The analysis suggests that high core inflation in 2023 was driven both by demand and supply factors. The post-pandemic inflation surge is attributed to both supply and demand factors, with the latter dominating most of the time. Wage dynamics will influence the inflation outlook. While risks of a wage-price spiral have declined substantially, the extent to which remaining demand pressures will affect future inflation will partly depend on wage dynamics. Deposit rates saw delayed and smaller increases, likely driven by high banking sector liquidity and low competition. Continued commitment to containing aggregate demand is supporting the final stage of disinflation. The last mile of disinflation would benefit from containing aggregate demand. While supply disruptions are no longer materially impacting inflation, domestic demand continues to put pressure on prices.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper investigates why New Zealand’s inflation is higher and further from target than comparator economies considering two main hypotheses: (1) the persistence of pandemic era shocks, and (2) strong migration inflows fuelling demand. The paper finds that, like in many advanced economies, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, high global commodity prices, exchange rates, and high maritime transport costs all fed into higher inflation. However, unique for New Zealand, the delayed reopening of the economy likely caused a postponed demand shock relative to similar economies. Results show that the impact of these shocks decay rapidly over time, suggesting positive short-term inflation dynamics. With an eye for what lies ahead, the paper finds that large migration waves are associated with short-run increases in inflation, but that these effects are relatively modest and no longer significant after four years. Instead, the long-run dynamics show evidence that migration can lead to significant long-term gains to productivity, output, and capital growth. Countries with tight labor markets exhibit similar patterns to those without, except the inflationary effects of migration dissipate faster.