Kenya is confronted with the need to chart a course that attends directly to the
recent public outcry. The widespread protests that started in June and resulted in tragic
loss of lives and injuries were triggered by the authorities’ efforts to correct a large tax
revenue shortfall in FY2023/24 through revenue raising proposals in the 2024 Finance
Bill, some of which were unpopular or seen as regressive. The protests forced the
President to withdraw the Bill, introduce significant spending cuts through a
Supplementary Budget in July, and reconstitute the Cabinet in August. Persistent
difficulties in mobilizing revenue coupled with spending rigidities have led to a further
accumulation of pending bills, and necessitated deep cuts in development spending,
with potential for knock-on effects on growth and debt sustainability. Against this
backdrop, preceded by large exogenous shocks (COVID-19, global developments
impacting import price and affordable access to market finance, and severe multi-season
droughts), the authorities face a complex and difficult balancing act: meeting critical
spending needs for priority areas (social programs, health, and education), servicing
large upcoming debt obligations, and boosting domestic revenues. Earlier in the year,
Kenya addressed the exceptional balance of payments (BoP) needs associated with
repayment of the June 2024 US$2 billion Eurobond, boosting market confidence that
helped strengthen the shilling and build reserves. Meanwhile, fiscal pressures continue,
including from uncertainty surrounding the constitutionality of the 2023 Finance Act on
which the Supreme Court’s decision is awaited.
Jean-Marc Fournier, Tannous Kass-Hanna, Liam Masterson, Anne-Charlotte Paret, and Sneha D Thube
We quantify cross-border effects of the recent climate mitigation policies introduced in Canada and the U.S., using the global general equilibrium model IMF-ENV. Notably, with the substantial emission reductions from Canada’s carbon tax-led mitigation policies and the U.S.’ Inflation Reduction Act, these two countries would bridge two-thirds of the gap toward their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals. While the broadly divergent policies are believed to elicit competitiveness concerns, we find the aggregate cross-border effects within North America to be very limited and restricted to the energy intensive and trade exposed industries. Potential carbon leakages are also found to be negligible. A more meaningful difference triggered by policy heterogeneity is rather domestic, especially with U.S. subsidies increasing energy output while the Canada model with a carbon tax would marginally decrease it. This analysis is complemented by a stylized model illustrating how such divergence can affect the terms of trade, but also how these effects can be countered by exchange rate flexibility, border adjustments or domestic taxation.
David Amaglobeli, Joaquim Guilhoto, Samir Jahan, Salma Khalid, Waikei R Lam, Gregory M Legoff, Brent Meyer, Xuguang Simon Sheng, Pawel Smietanka, Sonya Waddell, and Daniel Weitz
The energy price shock in 2022 led to government support for firms in some countries, sparking debate about the rationale and the nature of such support. The results from nationally representative firm surveys in the United States and Germany indicate that firms in these countries were generally resilient. Coping strategies adopted by firms included the pass-through of higher costs to consumers, adjustment of profit margins (United States) and investments in energy saving and efficiency (Germany). Firms in energy-intensive industries would have been significantly more affected if international energy prices were fully passed through to domestic prices in Europe. Survey responses further reveal that most firms are uncertain about the impact of recent policy announcments on green subsidies. Firms take advantage of fiscal incentives to accelerate their climate-related investment plans are often those that have previous plans to do so. These findings suggest better targeting and enhancing policy certainty will be important when facilitate the green transition among firms.
The Senegalese economy continues to face headwinds. Despite the difficult socioeconomic environment, the authorities remain committed to the program objectives. Some of the downside risks identified at the time of the program request have materialized, leading to a downward revision of near-term growth. Inflation is projected to decline more gradually than anticipated. While near-term risks remain titled to the downside, with appropriate policies and the start of hydrocarbon production, medium-term prospects are favorable.
This paper presents Senegal’s First Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility, The Extended Credit Facility, and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangements, Requests for Modification of the Quantitative Performance Criteria Rephasing of Access. The Senegalese economy continues to face headwinds as it recovers from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The Senegalese economy continues to face headwinds. Some of the downside risks identified at the time of the program request are materializing, leading to a downward revision of growth and higher inflation projected for 2023/24. Near-term risks remain titled to the downside, but medium-term prospects remain favorable with appropriate policies and the start of hydrocarbon production. Significant progress has been achieved in implementing structural reforms. The authorities are implementing the structural reforms agreed under the program, including steps to strengthen revenue administration and public financial management, enhance governance and improve the anti-corruption frameworks. Reforms agreed under the RSF are being implemented steadily.
Mr. Serhan Cevik, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski, Ms. Grace B Li, Sabiha Mohona, and Yueshu Zhao
EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power generation and industrial sectors are a key factor. They have also trailed EU countries in emissions mitigation policies since 2000, with little use of market-based instruments, and they still have substantial fossil fuel subsidies. Increasingly stringent EU mitigation policies are asociated with lower emissions in EUN. Overall output effects of the CBAM, in its current form, would be limited, though exports and emissions-intensive industries could be heavily impacted. A unilaterally adopted economywide carbon tax of $75 per ton would significantly lower emissions by 2030, with minimal consequences for output or household welfare, though a safety net for the affected workers may be necessary. To become competitive today by attracting green FDI and technology, overcoming infrastructure constraints and integrating into EU’s supply chains, EUN countries would be well served to front load decarbonization, rather than postpone it for later.
This paper presents Senegal’s Requests for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The Senegalese economy has been severely impacted by different shocks including the rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, weaker external demand, and the US dollar appreciation. The EFF/ECF-supported program will help meet Senegal’s protracted balance of payment needs and address macroeconomic imbalances. Policy priorities under the EFF/ECF program include reducing debt vulnerabilities by embarking on a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, strengthening governance, and delivering a more inclusive and job-rich growth. The RSF aims to tackle longer-term structural challenges related to climate change and the implementation of climate policies. The RSF will support Senegal's climate change mitigation objectives, accelerate the country’s climate change adaptation, and support work to mainstream climate change considerations into the budget process.
This paper presents Senegal’s Requests for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The Senegalese economy has been severely impacted by different shocks including the rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, weaker external demand, and the US dollar appreciation. The EFF/ECF-supported program will help meet Senegal’s protracted balance of payment needs and address macroeconomic imbalances. Policy priorities under the EFF/ECF program include reducing debt vulnerabilities by embarking on a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, strengthening governance, and delivering a more inclusive and job-rich growth. The RSF aims to tackle longer-term structural challenges related to climate change and the implementation of climate policies. The RSF will support Senegal's climate change mitigation objectives, accelerate the country’s climate change adaptation, and support work to mainstream climate change considerations into the budget process.
This paper presents Benin’s Second Review under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements. Program performance has been robust, with all end-September and end-December 2022 performance criteria, indicative targets met, and all structural benchmarks implemented. Revenue-based fiscal consolidation is underway, after three years of warranted policy accommodation amidst repeated and severe exogenous shocks. After three years of warranted policy accommodation, fiscal consolidation is underway, underpinned by robust tax collection and spending reprioritization to shield social programs and help meet Benin’s large development and security-related needs. The recently established social registry is much needed to channel timely support to vulnerable households in a world more prone to shocks. Its swift full operationalization is critical to improve the targeting and efficiency of social programs as their coverage expands. The structural reform agenda is advancing, including with the completion and publication of the IMF governance diagnostic, the adoption of a financial inclusion strategy, the digitalization of land title requests, and the submission to Parliament of a draft law to ensure the sustainability of the authorities’ flagship school feeding program.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on Chile’s tax reform scenarios in international perspective. While the economic and social outcomes achieved by Chile have been impressive, important social challenges lie ahead. This paper benchmarks the estimated revenue gains of the tax reform proposal and discusses different fiscal consolidation scenarios. The paper also presents the stylized facts of the tax system in Chile compared with The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Following a very brief overview of the tax reform proposal, the paper also presents a benchmark analysis of the estimated revenue yields against similar domestic revenue mobilization episodes in OECD countries. The authorities are firmly committed to their medium-term fiscal consolidation plan. The tax reform is needed to finance social spending and meet the authorities’ fiscal consolidation plan. It is also important to consider that the increase in taxes will have implications for growth, with the effect depending on the final composition of the tax and spending reforms.