Geoffroy Dolphin, Romain A Duval, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Galen Sher
Following the 2022 energy crisis, this paper investigates whether Europe’s ongoing efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions can also enhance its energy security. The global computational general equilibrium model analysis finds that individual policy tools, including carbon pricing, energy efficiency standards, and accelerated permitting procedures for renewables, tend to improve energy security. Compared to carbon pricing, sector-specific regulations deliver larger energy security gains and spread those more evenly across countries, benefitting also some fossil-fuel-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe. This finding strengthens the case for a broad climate policy package, which can both achieve Europe’s emissions-reduction goals and deliver sizeable energy security co-benefits. An illustrative package, which would cut emissions in the EU, UK, and EFTA by 55 percent with respect to 1990 levels by 2030, is estimated to improve the two energy security metrics used in this paper by close to 8 percent already by 2030. Beyond the policies analyzed in the model, the paper also discusses the technology, market design, and supply chain reforms that Europe needs for an energy-secure green transition.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes inflation in the Czech Republic. The paper analyzes using an adaptive learning structural model. A structural model incorporating adaptive learning features is well suited to project inflation path in the Czech Republic. In Czechia, inflation expectations are notably shaped by past inflation outcomes, creating a feedback loop where rapidly decreasing inflation contributes to a shorter duration of elevated inflation, and vice-versa. Within this model, the central bank influences inflation through three channels. The first is direct-tightening policy reduces demand, lowers the output gap, and thus decreases inflation. The other two channels operate through inflation expectations. Tightening policy not only reduces current inflation but also impacts future expectations. Importantly, in contrast to perfect foresight-rational expectations models, the central bank can shape agents’ learning. Lower-than-expected current inflation leads to adjustments in how past inflation is perceived, influencing future inflation. The model suggests that the speed to reach the inflation target depends on the strength of the monetary policy stance.